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Updated 2025-01-15 03:15
Emergency measures fail to halt China's stock market nosedive
July ends on another low note as stocks record biggest monthly loss in almost six years, despite concerted efforts by Beijing to prop up the exchangesChinese share prices suffered a dismal end to a dire month as promises of more emergency measures from officials in Beijing failed to stem a stock market slide that is now reverberating around the global economy.Despite policymakers’ pledges to underpin the flagging Chinese economy and a further crackdown by the markets watchdog, stocks fell further on Friday and posted their biggest monthly loss in almost six years.Related: China's leaders hamstring its investors as the speculative frenzy continues Continue reading...
Alexis Tsipras defends Yanis Varoufakis over secret Grexit plan
PM objects to mounting criticism of controversial ex-finance minister as Greece meets quartet of creditors for bailout talksAlexis Tsipras, the Greek prime minister, has launched a staunch defence of his former right-hand man Yanis Varoufakis following revelations that the ex-finance minister drew up secret plans to ditch the euro if bailout talks failed.Varoufakis, who was a controversial figure during his tenure in Athens, courting publicity and provoking his eurozone counterparts, has admitted he formulated a scheme for leaving the euro, which involved hacking into the Greek tax system.Related: Greece crisis: Yanis Varoufakis admits 'contingency plan' for euro exitRelated: In defence of Yanis Varoufakis Continue reading...
Hedge fund manager new to Bank of England MPC severs links with old firm
Gertjan Vlieghe announces he will be bought out of Brevan Howard and maintains there was no conflict of interest despite others’ concernsA hedge fund manager appointed to the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee (MPC) has succumbed to pressure about potential conflicts of interest by severing financial links with his former employer.The appointment of Gertjan Vlieghe, a former partner and senior economist at hedge fund Brevan Howard, to the rate-setting committee was announced on Tuesday but prompted concern about his remaining ties to the investment firm. He was to have retained a financial interest in Brevan Howard, which is a partnership. This would have allowed him to receive long-term incentive payments based on the hedge fund’s size, according to a report by Reuters. Continue reading...
IMF will refuse to join Greek bailout until debt relief demands are met
Fund official confirms it will not sign up to any formal support programme unless eurozone creditors reach ‘explicit and concrete’ agreementThe International Monetary Fund will refuse to participate in a new bailout for Greece until there is an “explicit and concrete agreement” on debt relief from the country’s eurozone creditors, an IMF official has confirmed.Without the IMF’s involvement, Greece’s eurozone partners will have to find more funds to meet Athens’ short-term financing needs, raising questions about whether the outline €86bn (£60bn) bailout thrashed out earlier this month will prove workable.Related: IMF negotiator prepares to join Greek talks as deadline looms Continue reading...
Bank of England: new MPC member faces scrutiny from Treasury MPs
Select committee will ask Gertjan Vlieghe to prove independence from the Brevan Howard hedge fund, where is he is a partnerThe Treasury select committee is preparing to challenge newly appointed member of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee, Gertjan Vlieghe, to prove his independence from the hedge fund Brevan Howard, where he is a partner.Andrew Tyrie, the Conservative MP who chairs the cross-party committee of MPs, said: “It is essential that the MPC is – and is seen to be – independent. The Treasury committee will be seeking reassurance that Mr Vlieghe’s business interests do not pose a conflict with his membership of the MPC when he comes for an appointment hearing in the autumn.”Related: Bank of England: Gertjan Vlieghe named as new MPC member Continue reading...
Kipper Williams on Ireland's strong economic growth
Ireland roars ahead of other eurozone members as country returns to pre-crisis ‘Celtic Tiger’ levels Continue reading...
Is the Calais crisis costing the UK £250m a day in lost trade?
Freight Trade Association’s estimate of cost of disruption at French port does not stack upIs the Calais crisis really costing the UK £250m a day in lost trade?It seems vastly improbable. The figure was issued by the Freight Transport Association (FTA), derived, using a crude calculation, from a 2014 study on the value of trade passing through the port of Dover. Continue reading...
US economic growth accelerates in second quarter as spending picks up
The Fed described the economy as expanding ‘moderately’ while upgrading its view of the labor market, pointing the way to an interest rate hikeThe US economy accelerated in the second quarter, further raising the prospect that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates – which have been held near zero since the financial crisis – as early as September.
Ireland's economy grows 1.4% to return to pre-crisis levels
Country saw 1.4% quarter-on-quarter growth in first three months of 2015, pushing it to top of eurozone league table for second year runningIreland’s economy grew by 1.4% quarter-on-quarter in the first three months of the year, in a recovery that is forecast to make it the fastest-growing economy in Europe for the second consecutive year.Ireland’s economy expanded by 5.2% last year, revised up on Thursday from 4.8% previously, its best performance since 2007 before a property crash plunged it into recession and triggered a fiscal and banking crisis. Continue reading...
Size of Ireland's economy surpasses pre-global crisis levels
Ireland and Spain, both of which exited bailout programmes 18 months ago, have successfully shrugged of the legacies of the crashIreland’s economy has surpassed the size it reached at the peak of the “Celtic Tiger” boom, official figures have revealed, in the latest evidence that the country is shrugging off the legacy of the crash.Annual output reached €189bn (£132bn) in 2014, which statisticians said was larger, in real terms, than its pre-crisis level. Economic growth for last year was revised up, to 5.2%.Related: As Greece stares into the abyss, has Spain escaped from crisis? Continue reading...
Federal Reserve hints at interest rate rise but leaves them unchanged for now
Calling economy’s job gains ‘solid’, latest statement leads many to believe Fed chair Janet Yellen is targeting 16-17 September policy meeting for rate hikeThe Federal Reserve on Wednesday continued to pave the way for an increase in interest rates as early as September.The US central bank left its key interest rate unchanged at near zero – where it has been since the 2008 financial crisis – but once again signalled that rates will rise later this year.Related: Will a rise in US interest rates cause investments to tumble? Continue reading...
Lagarde calls for 'significant' Greek debt relief; Fed leaves rates unchanged - as it happened
The US Federal Reserve has resisted raising interest rates until it sees more signs of labor market improvement
IMF negotiator prepares to join Greek talks as deadline looms
Delia Velculescu’s imminent arrival coincides with fears that Greece will be unable to wrap up discussions by 20 August, when €3.4bn payment is dueDiscussions between Greece and its creditors are set to step up a gear when the International Monetary Fund’s lead representative arrives in Athens for talks.However, the arrival of the Romanian-born Delia Velculescu on Thursday coincides with growing speculation that it will be impossible to wrap up negotiations for a third bailout by the 20 August deadline. This date is when the €3.4bn (£2.4bn) payment is due from the Greek government to the European Central Bank. Instead, officials and local politicians in Greece believe that eurozone creditors will ensure the country receives a bridging loan to prevent a default.Related: 'Iron lady' set to play central role in next act of Greek bailout dramaRelated: Yanis Varoufakis may face criminal charges over Greek currency plan Continue reading...
Was the replacement of Jenkins at Barclays just window-dressing?
The board ousted Antony Jenkins despite one of the best half-year results in a while. And it’s not clear what will change. So why did the share price leap?It remains a mystery why Antony Jenkins received a “unanimous” vote of no confidence from Barclays’ non-executive directors. There were no nasties lurking in Wednesday’s interim figures beyond the usual parade of provisions, including another £600m for mis-selling payment protection insurance (PPI). This was Barclays’ best half-year for a while. Targets for capital and leverage ratios in 2016 have been reached already. The former chief executive will collect a payoff of at least £2.5m to ease the bruising to his ego but, by the standard of these things, he’s entitled to feel miffed.A need for greater dynamism was the semi-official explanation for his exit. But, if that’s the path Barclays wants to tread, John McFarlane, newly installed as executive chairman, needs to improve his own game. Continue reading...
Chinese share prices bounce back as emergency measures take effect
Stock markets breathe a sigh of relief but analysts warn of long-term consequences of government interventionChinese share prices have bounced back after the latest emergency measures by policymakers to underpin the country’s fragile stock markets appeared to have increased confidence.Investors in China’s markets have endured a white knuckle ride in recent weeks, with prices on the Shanghai Composite index plunging by 8.5% on Monday alone – the sharpest sell-off in eight years – as trading in many stocks was suspended. But following a second day of declines the index closed up 3.5% on Wednesday. Continue reading...
'Iron lady' set to play central role in next act of Greek bailout drama
Romanian economist Delia Velculescu, who forged a steely reputation as lead IMF negotiator in Cyprus deal, heads for Athens to engineer new agreementDelia Velculescu, the Romanian economist chosen to lead the International Monetary Fund’s negotiating team in Greece, was dubbed the “iron lady” during the fraught talks over Cyprus’s bailout. Given the poor relationship between Athens and its creditors, her toughness will be tested anew in the coming days.Velculescu arrives in Athens on Thursday amid uncertainty over the IMF’s willingness to throw its weight behind a third bailout for the stricken eurozone state. Alexis Tsipras, the Greek prime minister, hopes to negotiate a deal before 20 August, but the IMF will subject any agreement to rigorous examination.Related: Yanis Varoufakis may face criminal charges over Greek currency plan Continue reading...
Reform in Greece is for the good of all Europe | Peter Ammon
Greece is going through difficult times. But proven economic reforms can create a Europe strong enough to meet challenges from Ukraine to Islamic StateJudging by the flood of comments that followed the recent European summit on Greece, a modern Greek drama is unfolding in which a small but proud nation, the motherland of democracy, is being subjected to senseless austerity by cold-hearted bureaucrats and penny-pinching foreign politicians. These comments have rather puzzled me.A few days ago, the German parliament gave its approval to negotiations on a new financial assistance package for Greece worth up to €86bn (£60bn). Germany’s share will be a bit more than a quarter, or the equivalent of roughly €500 per household. That is big money and it’s on top of the €215bn that Greece has already had under the first and second assistance packages in 2010 and 2012. Greece has received assistance equivalent to more than its entire annual GDP – which dwarfs, for example, the Marshall plan. All eurozone countries will contribute, despite some of them having per-capita incomes significantly below Greece’s. This is a broad act of European solidarity.What matters is to put Greece back on its feet and to restore trust Continue reading...
Brussels rejects Yanis Varoufakis' claims that troika controlled Greek tax system
Allegations of covert scheme described as ‘simply not true’ by European commission as Alexis Tsipras looks to conclude third bailout deal with creditorsThe European commission has denounced as “false and unfounded” claims by Greece’s former finance minister Yanis Varoufakis that international creditors had exclusive control over the country’s tax system.Brussels slammed the suggestion that external supervision of the Greek tax revenue agency forced Varoufakis to consider hacking the ministry’s computers as part of a secret plan to devise a parallel payment system for the nation.Related: Greece crisis: Yanis Varoufakis admits 'contingency plan' for euro exitRelated: Greek debt crisis demonstrates perils of lending to your euro friends Continue reading...
The uncertain relationship between national insurance and income tax | Letters
Larry Elliott, in his recommendation to merge income tax and national insurance contributions (Analysis, 27 July), makes only a brief reference to any potential impact on the structure of the social security system. But this could be significant.A merger on the paying-in side may seem technically tidier. But to remove any connection between contributions and benefits runs counter to the new single-tier pension, which deliberately kept such a link. Continue reading...
The Guardian view on offshore secrecy: transparency is welcome, but it’s not a housing policy | Editorial
Though demanding transparency is a step in the right direction, the UK will still be the global capital of light-touch regulationTwo and a half years ago, this newspaper published a series of special investigations into who was feeding London’s property bubble – and how they did it. The results were rather at odds with the usual property porn. Sure, there were stories on luxury flats in Mayfair. But the real star of the show was one office block in the British Virgin Islands, housing hundreds of sham companies with sham directors. Or perhaps it was the Land Registry and Companies House, with their records full of fake names and phoney directors. Then again, there were all those stories of Russian billionaires, some on the run from the law, all piling into property in London and the south-east. More than just good anecdotes, these were big money and massive tax dodges. In 2011 alone, more than £7bn of offshore money was poured into Britain’s flats, houses and office blocks. Of that, more than half – £3.8bn – of the transactions used entities registered in the British Virgin Islands. Needless to say, most of the money landed up in just a few square miles in the centre of the capital. Combing through Land Registry records, estate agents Knight Frank calculated that in the year to June 2013 overseas residents bought 49% of all newly built property in the plushest parts of central London.This dirty money-go-round is what David Cameron promised to stop today – and for that he deserves a big round of applause. So too does his pledge of a truthful property register – in which the owners of Britain’s land and homes are actually named. It should also be recognised that the Conservative government has gone further on this issue than Tony Blair or Gordon Brown managed in their 13 years in power, and post-9/11 attempts at cracking down on money-laundering. Labour had plenty of opportunity to take this step. In 2001, a Treasury official named Andrew Edwards warned that the Land Registry was open to criminal abuse. “If public policy emphasises privacy above transparency, the greatest beneficiaries are likely to be criminals,” the Edwards report said. It might be pointed out too that the last prime minister who refused to do something about this abuse was one David Cameron, whose government reacted to the Guardian’s 2012 expose and that year’s G8 tax, trade and transparency summit with this statement: “The UK encourages foreign investment and has no plans to stop overseas companies from registering as owners of property with the Land Registry.” Continue reading...
Tougher banking rules must stay, says Bank of England deputy governor
Sir John Cunliffe tells City that regulations imposed since 2008 crisis should not be relaxed to drive economic growthA senior policymaker at the Bank of England has said that regulations imposed on the banking sector since the 2008 crisis should not be scaled back in any effort to fuel economic growth.Sir Jon Cunliffe, deputy governor for financial stability, told a City audience that while banks had a key role to play in fuelling economic growth, this should not come at the expense of increasing risks to financial stability.Related: Banks face 'uphill battle' to ringfence high street operations, expert warns Continue reading...
Global markets steady despite further falls in Chinese shares
Indices in China avoid huge falls of Monday, but second day of declines, coupled with bets on US rates rise, put emerging markets’ currencies under pressureGlobal markets have steadied despite a second successive day of declines in Chinese shares, as Beijing battled to rein in the stock market turmoil that has returned to haunt the world’s second-largest economy.However, the sharp moves in China, coupled with bets on the first US interest rate hike since the financial crash, continued on Tuesday to send shockwaves through emerging markets – where currencies in particular came under pressure.
Greek debt crisis demonstrates perils of lending to your euro friends
Eurozone must develop insolvency procedures that prevent other member states – and their taxpayers – becoming creditors through debt mutualisationAfter months of games and brinkmanship, and only a week after Greek voters rejected the conditions for a €7.5bn (£5.3bn) rescue package, the end came swiftly. The eurozone’s political leaders agreed to start negotiations on a much larger package, worth €86bn , almost half of Greece’s GDP. Unfortunately, the deal reveals Europe’s apparent determination to reenact the same tragedy in the future.Over the past five years, a whopping €344bn has flowed from official creditors such as the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund into the coffers of the Greek government and the country’s commercial banks. But after six months of near-futile negotiations, exhaustion had set in and holidays were beckoning; so the actual conditions for a new Greek rescue were given short shrift. Although the European Financial Stability Facility (EDSF) had officially declared Greece bankrupt on 3 July, the eurozone’s leaders kicked the insolvency can down the road yet again. Continue reading...
UK growth accelerates; Greece begins talks with creditors - as it happened
Britain’s GDP-per-head is finally back to its pre-crisis levels, but factories are struggling to grow
Bank of England: Gertjan Vlieghe named as new MPC member
Senior economist at hedge fund returns to Bank of England, replacing David Miles on rate-setting committeeChancellor George Osborne has announced that Gertjan Vlieghe, a senior economist at hedge fund Brevan Howard, will replace David Miles on the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee.The move marks a return to the Bank for the dual British-Belgian national Vlieghe, who was economic assistant to the previous governor Lord Mervyn King. He left that post to work as a bond strategist at Deutsche Bank in London before moving to Brevan Howard, where he is a partner.Related: Why Mark Carney shouldn’t rush to play the rate-rise cardDelighted to appoint Dr Gertjan Vlieghe to Bank's MPC - an economist of outstanding ability with public + private sector experience Continue reading...
UK GDP growth: we have rarely had it so good, apparently
Services fuel accelerating GDP pace in third-longest spell of growth since 1955 but there are signs that the spoils are not being shared equallyAfter a sluggish first quarter, the UK economy got going again in the second quarter, with signs even that the long-awaited recovery in living standards is taking root. Chancellor George Osborne says Britain is “motoring ahead”, which is an interesting choice of words given manufacturing shrank.However, he is right that the headlines from Tuesday’s growth figures tell a generally happy tale.We’ve rarely had it so good. Today’s GDP data will confirm UK is enjoying its 3rd-longest spell of growth since 1955. pic.twitter.com/TSlRedG47Z Continue reading...
I'm a doctor at the World Bank – you can trust me to help end global poverty
My medical background has given me the skills to prioritise, troubleshoot and use data to track outcomes – all excellent training for my role at the bankI am writing this at my desk on the 12th floor of the World Bank headquarters in Washington DC. It feels a long way from the hospitals where I began my career. I’m a doctor by training and I often get asked how I ended up running the World Bank president’s delivery unit (PDU).In fact, my medical background prepared me for this role in three big ways: understanding the nature of triage means I can prioritise; formulating a diagnosis means I can troubleshoot; and I have always used data to track prognosis and outcomes. All three are fundamental to my role at the bank, as well as the new approach to development under the leadership of World Bank president Jim Yong Kim.Related: Millions more have a bank account, but what is the impact on global poverty?Related: Open government: a chance to revolutionise the relationship between citizens and their leaders Continue reading...
UK economy powers ahead by 0.7%
Accelerating GDP growth rate fans talk of interest rate rise but a 0.3% dip in manufacturing prompts warnings of two-speed economy
China's stock market remains jittery after greatest losses since 2007
Beijing vows to buy stocks to prop up stock market, regulator says, as shares slump then rise after Monday’s frenzied sellingBeijing has vowed to step up its interventions in China’s volatile stock market following a traumatic day on Monday when stocks suffered their greatest losses since 2007.A government-controlled stock-buying agency would “continue to buy stocks to stabilise the market”, said Zhang Xiaojun, a spokesperson with China’s security’s regulator, the CSRC.Related: Stock market advice for China: when in a hole, stop digging Continue reading...
Post-crisis job stability blocking career paths of young people, study suggests
Resolution Foundation claims drop in people moving between jobs reduces prospects of pay rises and creates ‘promotion blockage’ for young UK workersIf every cloud has a silver lining, then in the case of the UK labour market it appears that every bright spot has a shadow. That’s the suggestion in new research from the Resolution Foundation into how a rise in job stability over the last two decades has stymied the careers of young people.Rather than being merely cause for celebration, the drop in the rate at which people move between jobs since the financial crisis in 2008 is likely to reduce the prospects for promotion, pay rises and productivity gains, the thinktank says. It warns of a “promotion blockage that risks permanently scarring the earnings of a generation of young workers”.Related: We millennials lack a roadmap to adulthood | Zach Stafford“Job security is crucial to the pursuit of full employment as it will make work more attractive to those facing the biggest barriers to work. But we should also be mindful about the falling rate of job moves, which are a vital way for young workers to build their careers.” Continue reading...
Ben Jennings on David Cameron's trip to south-east Asia – cartoon
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Stock market advice for China: when in a hole, stop digging
With ham-fisted interventions, Beijing has turned the stock market into a giant game of guessing how long its props will last. But it is unlikely to change tackEven by recent Chinese standards, the latest stock market plunge was spectacular. Nearly 1,800 stocks – or more than 60% of shares on the main markets in Shanghai and Shenzhen – fell by the daily limit of 10%, thereby triggering a trading suspension. If such a limit had not been in operation, who knows where prices might have settled. An 8.5% overall fall in the Shanghai Composite might have been 18.5% or 28.5%. Almost any guess is credible.Related: Beijing's desperate attempts to control the stock market will end badlyRelated: Greece crisis: Yanis Varoufakis admits 'contingency plan' for euro exit Continue reading...
Construction-sector recovery at risk from skills shortage, say building firms
Federation of Master Builders says its poll of small and medium-sized firms reveals struggle to hire bricklayers, carpenters and joiners
French farmers blockade border roads in protest against cheap imports
Demonstrations against falling prices prevent over 400 trucks from bringing in goods from Germany and Spain as president insists government is ‘by their side’French farmers have blockaded roads from Germany and Spain and stopped hundreds of trucks bringing in foreign meat, vegetables and dairy produce in renewed protests against falling prices and cheap imports, despite the French government’s attempts to contain what could soon become a summer of agricultural discontent.
Scottish government turning to more private money for public projects
Children’s hospital among affected projects after spending programme part-funded by private sector runs foul of new EU rules on measuring state spendingThe Scottish government is turning to increased private-sector funding to pay for a multibillion pound spending programme after a Brussels ruling that has delayed major public projects in Scotland.Those affected include a bypass around Aberdeen, a children’s hospital in Edinburgh and more than a dozen secondary schools. They are being reorganised to increase private sector control and private funding, in order to prevent a curb on Scottish government borrowing and keep the projects off Holyrood’s balance sheet.
IMF warns of gloomy eurozone outlook
Reforms and action needed urgently as fears over Greece, high unemployment, structural flaws and a still-shaken bank sector slow growthThe International Monetary Fund has warned the eurozone faces a gloomy economic outlook thanks to lingering worries over Greece, high unemployment and a banking sector still battling to shake off the financial crisis.The IMF’s latest healthcheck on the eurozone found it was “susceptible to negative shocks” as growth continues to falter and monetary policymakers run out of ways to help. It called for an urgent “collective push” from the currency union to speed up reforms or else risk years of lost growth.
Gloomiest export outlook in almost four years among UK manufacturers
Strong pound and eurozone crisis mean more companies expect overseas orders to fall rather than rise, according to CBI pollA strong pound and turmoil in the eurozone have left British manufacturers feeling gloomiest for almost four years on demand for exports, according to a business survey.In the latest evidence that exporters are facing a number of challenges, the CBI’s latest quarterly snapshot of manufacturers suggested new overseas orders picked up in the three months to July but that the outlook is gloomier. It highlighted the rise in sterling, which continues to make UK goods more expensive to overseas buyers. Continue reading...
Six collapsing commodities
Commodity prices from gold to oil and aluminium to iron ore are tumbling – here are the big fallersJust when investors thought it might be time for a summer lull, financial markets have shifted their focus from the eurozone and its Greek woes to tumbling commodity prices.Related: Anglo American and Lonmin cut jobs amid commodity slump Continue reading...
UK economic growth figures to ignite interest rate debate
GDP estimate from the ONS is expected to show the economy expanded by 0.7% in the second quarter of this yearThe latest snapshot of economic growth this week will heat up the debate about when the Bank of England will raise UK interest rates for the first time since the depths of financial crisis.Economists predict official figures on Tuesday will show GDP growth bounced back in the second quarter after a new-year slowdown. Alongside fading worries about the Greek debt crisis and signs of rising living standards, any such recovery in headline growth could fan expectations that the Bank’s policymakers are readying to raise interest rates, perhaps even before the end of the year. Continue reading...
Greece rocked by reports of secret plan to raid banks for drachma return
Opposition demands answers after covert proposals attributed to Yanis Varoufakis and fellow ex-minister highlight deep split in Syriza partySome members of Greece’s leftist-led government wanted to raid central bank reserves and hack taxpayer accounts to prepare a return to the drachma, according to reports that highlighted the chaos in the ruling Syriza party.It is not clear how seriously the government considered the plans, attributed to former energy minister Panagiotis Lafazanis and ex-finance minister Yanis Varoufakis. Lafazanis was sacked from his post and Varoufakis resigned earlier this month. However, the revelations have been seized on by opposition parties who are demanding an explanation.Related: Who’d be young and Greek? Searching for a future after the debt crisis Continue reading...
Joseph Stiglitz: unsurprising Jeremy Corbyn is a Labour leadership contender
Anti-austerity figures have emerged because young people feel badly let down by centre-left governments such as Blair’s, says Nobel economics laureateA Nobel prize-winning economist has said it is unsurprising that an anti-austerity figure such as Jeremy Corbyn has emerged as a contender for the Labour leadership.Speaking in London on Sunday, Joseph Stiglitz warned that policies from centre-left governments such as Tony Blair’s had undermined the middle-ground message, partly by entrenching wealth for the very few.Membership Event: Guardian Live | The future of Labour: meet the next leaderRelated: Jeremy Corbyn might just be able to unite Britain’s progressive parties | LettersRelated: Joseph Stiglitz: how I would vote in the Greek referendum Continue reading...
Lingerie capital of Brazil feels the pinch as recession deepens
The hillside town of Nova Friburgo is home to 1,300 registered underwear retailers and manufacturers but small producers are suffering in the downturnIn an empty shop, on a deserted street, under the shadow of a billboard bearing the image of a 50ft woman in bra and knickers, Fátima Vieira is reconsidering her choice of career.The 54-year old owner of the underwear shop Switch Women moved from Rio de Janeiro to the hillside town of Nova Friburgo five years ago to start her business in the so-called lingerie capital of Brazil.
The recovery seems to be strong – but a rate rise will bring it crashing down
Sweden and Canada have both suffered the consequences of raising rates too early. No matter how good GDP figures are this week, the Bank should take careBritain’s growth rate returned to Mach 2 speed in the spring and early summer. That’s the consensus among City analysts ahead of official figures out this week, handing George Osborne another golden arrow with which to shoot down his critics.It is the re-emergence of the big-spending consumer (who snaps up a new bed and sofa while ordering a case of wine) that is likely to have prevented the UK economy from repeating the lacklustre growth rate of 0.4% seen in the first three months of the year.If rates go up in November or possibly next February, the betting must be that they will soon come down again Continue reading...
A chancellor who shrinks the state will end up shrinking his popularity
The rhetoric about ‘scroungers’ plays well, but the size of Osborne’s assault on services is so large that he may end up facing a widespread public backlashThe Conservatives are riding high at the moment and Labour are laid flat on the floor. Seldom has a serving chancellor of the exchequer appeared as triumphalist as George Osborne – although memories are evoked of the high points in my old friend Nigel Lawson’s chancellorship during the boom of 1988.However: history demonstrates that Labour is capable of coming back from the dead – eventually. And to my mind, with his naked experiment in social engineering and drastically reducing the size of the state, George Osborne could well be riding for a fall. I for one would not risk too much money backing him to become prime minister.Let’s face it. All this stuff about “one nation” and “compassionate Conservatism” is so much guff Continue reading...
‘Quarterly capitalism’ is short-term, myopic, greedy and dysfunctional| Will Hutton
Shareholders must stop sucking companies dry at the expense of innovation, investment and the wellbeing of the workforceIt has been obvious for years that British capitalism is profoundly dysfunctional. In 1970, £10 of every £100 of profit was distributed to shareholders: today, under intense pressure from short-term owners, companies pay out £70. Investment, innovation and productivity have slumped. Few new companies grow to any significant size before they are taken over.Exports have stagnated. The current account deficit is at record proportions. The purpose of companies now is not to do great things, solve great problems or scale up great solutions –why capitalism is potentially the best economic system – it is to become payolas for their disengaged owners and pawns in the next big deal or takeover. Not only the British economy suffers – this process has become the major driver of rising inequality, low pay and insecurity in the workplace as management teams are forced to treat workers as costly commodities rather than allies in business building. Continue reading...
Greek bailout talks expected to go ahead on Monday after delay
Meetings with European commission, ECB and IMF were supposed to start on Friday but were delayed by organisational issuesTalks between Greece and its international creditors over a new bailout package should go ahead after logistical issues that delayed meetings this week are resolved, a Greek official has said.
Federal Reserve draws criticism after mistakenly releasing rate forecast
The slip-up was caused by ‘procedural errors at a staff level’ the Fed says, in the latest blow to its ability to maintain secrecy over its policy deliberationsStaff economists at the Federal Reserve expect a quarter-point US interest rate increase this year, according to forecasts the Fed mistakenly published on its website in a gaffe that drew criticism of its ability to keep secrets.
Greek debt crisis talks stall over choice of hotel
Talks on third bailout deal get off to a poor start as troika mission chiefs and Athens fail to agree on where visitors will stay over security concernsIn an inauspicious start to talks over awarding Greece a third bailout, international officials have postponed the negotiations after failing to agree with their hosts where they will stay and how they will operate when in Athens.
Global mining industry faces up to a deep malaise
Weaker demand from China has caused commodity prices to fall to levels not seen since 2009, and mining groups are feeling the painThe party is over in the mining industry – again. There is a strong whiff of 2009, the year after the great financial crisis. Almost every commodity is falling in price. Assumptions for demand, investment, jobs and shareholders’ dividends are being ripped up.The share price of once-mighty Anglo American illustrates the industry’s feast-or-famine characteristics. Between 2003 and 2009, Anglo’s shares travelled from 900p to £33 and then back to 900p; after 2009, they rose again to £33 but are now 778p.Related: Anglo American and Lonmin cut jobs amid commodity slumpRelated: North York Moors mineral mine set to get go-ahead Continue reading...
The great Greece fire sale
Greece needs to sell off €50bn worth of state assets such as airports and marinas quickly as part of its third bailout deal. But is such a plan realistic?In the early days of the Greek debt crisis, two German politicians came up with a radical solution: Greece should sell off some of its uninhabited islands and property to pay back its creditors. “Sell your islands you bankrupt Greeks! And sell the Acropolis too!” was how the German tabloid Bild summed up their idea.
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