Chancellor Angela Merkel will ask MPs to approve latest €86bn package, but faces prospect of many conservatives voting against the dealFor the second time this summer, German politicians have been forced to interrupt their holidays and fly back to Berlin for a key vote on bailing out Greece.In what is being seen as Angela Merkel’s last chance to ensure that Athens stays in the eurozone, MPs will decide on Wednesday whether to approve the latest €86bn (£60.5bn) rescue, Greece’s third.Related: Greece bailout deal: Angela Merkel expects IMF involvement Continue reading...

Though the cost of living figures were stronger than expected, an acceleration in wage growth is far more likely to trigger a hike in borrowing costsThe Bank of England says interest rates are going up. Not quite yet, but at some time in the not too distant future, the monetary policy committee thinks the conditions will be right for borrowing costs to go up.Mark Carney, the Bank’s governor, has made it clear that the timing of that decision will depend on what the economic data looks like. Unsurprisingly, therefore, every piece of news is seen as having a bearing on whether interest rates will go up in late 2015, early 2016 or later.Related: UK inflation rise fuels debate over higher interest rates Continue reading...

Devaluation of yuan and Beijing’s moves to halt shares sell-off fails to prevent biggest one-day fall in three weeks for Shanghai Composite IndexChina’s Shanghai Composite Index plunged more than 6% in its biggest drop in three weeks, amid fears that the recent change in exchange rate policy may accelerate flows of capital out of China.The Shanghai Composite Index fell 6.2% to 3,748.16, its largest fall since an 8.5% dive on 27 July that was the biggest slide in eight years. .Related: Eight reasons why China’s currency crisis matters to us allRelated: Why has China devalued its currency and what impact will it have? Continue reading...

ONS says falling food and fuel costs failed to offset pick up in prices caused by higher clothing costs and dearer air faresBritain’s inflation rate ticked higher last month, heating up the debate over when Bank of England (BoE) policymakers will start raising interest rates.The consumer price index (CPI) measure of inflation edged up to 0.1% in July from zero the month before, defying City expectations for no change and pushing the pound higher. But inflation is still well below the Bank’s 2% target, having hovered around zero since February.Related: Rail fares forecast to rise 1% after latest inflation data Continue reading...

Increase comes despite claims from campaigners that train tickets are rising three times faster than wages and service is deterioratingRail fares will rise by 1% from January after the announcement of July’s retail prices index inflation figure, which helps determine regulated train fares for the next year.Details of the rise follow a study which claimed that season tickets and other regulated fares had increased nearly three times faster than wages over the past five years.Related: Unions protest as rail fares rise three times faster than wages over five yearsRelated: UK inflation rise fuels debate over interest rate hike Continue reading...

Study of census results in England and Wales since 1871 finds rise of machines has been a job creator rather than making working humans obsoleteIn the 1800s it was the Luddites smashing weaving machines. These days retail staff worry about automatic checkouts. Sooner or later taxi drivers will be fretting over self-driving cars.The battle between man and machines goes back centuries. Are they taking our jobs? Or are they merely easing our workload? Continue reading...

Slowdown in China a major factor but ratings agency says UK growth is ‘robust and broad-based’ despite forecasting pace of expansion slowing to 2.4%The global economy is on course for muted growth this year and next as it faces risks from a slowdown in China, the prospect of higher interest rates in the US and the lingering threat of a Greek exit from the euro, according to the latest forecasts from Moody’s.Outlining the list of potential shocks that could knock even modest expansion off course, the credit rating agency said it did not expect the world’s leading economies to shake off the legacy of the financial crisis and return to their former growth averages for the next five years. Continue reading...

During the Greek crisis Europe missed a historic chance to fix its currency. Now the mess continuesNow the dust has temporarily settled over the ruins of Greece’s economy, it is worth asking if there wasn’t a brief moment when the actors had found a way to cut the eurozone crisis’s Gordian knot. At some point in July German finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, appeared to have realised that his dream of a “core Europe” with a Franco-German avant-garde would vanish into thin air if Greece was allowed to remain in the economic and monetary union. Rewriting the rules of the union to accommodate the Greeks, Schäuble realised, would pull the euro southwards, and France, Italy and Spain with it – forever breaking up the European core.His Greek equivalent Yanis Varoufakis, for his part, may have learned from his encounters of the third kind with the Eurogroup that the only role there was for Greece in the Europe of monetary union was that of an underfed and overregulated welfare recipient. Not only was this incompatible with Greek national pride; more importantly, what the governors of Europe would be willing to offer the Greeks by way of “European solidarity” would, at best, be too little to live on.Related: Why is Germany so tough on Greece? Look back 25 years | Dirk LaabsVery few people believe that programmes of this kind – like a Marshall plan – can “kickstart” an economy like Greece’s Continue reading...

Financial investors are watching the political fallout in Athens after its third aid programme was agreed on Friday night

Former finance minister accuses EU leaders of punishing ordinary people as he argues measures imposed on Greece will make dire economy worseGreece’s former finance minister Yanis Varoufakis has accused European leaders of allowing oligarchs to maintain their stranglehold on Greek society while punishing ordinary people in a line-by-line critique of the country’s €86bn (£61bn) bailout deal.Varoufakis said the Greek parliament had pushed through an agreement with international creditors that would allow oligarchs, who dominate sections of the economy, to generate huge profits and continue to avoid paying taxes. Continue reading...

Interest rates less likely to rise from historic low of 0.5% as falling energy prices and strong pound anchor inflation to well below 2% CPI targetFalling oil prices and a strong pound are likely to have anchored inflation at zero for a second successive month in July, giving further reason for Bank of England policymakers to delay raising interest rates.City economists said official figures to be published on Tuesday are likely to show consumer price inflation (CPI) remained at zero last month. The rate, which is used by the government as its official measure to set pensions, wages and benefits, fell to 0% in February, and has remained close to that level ever since.Related: Low pay, low inflation and low interest rates? This is not 1975Related: UK economy: the low-interest rate era is far from over Continue reading...

The second quarter of the year saw output contract by 0.4% despite prime minister Shinzo Abe’s huge stimulus programme to reverse years of poor growthJapan’s economy shrunk 0.4% in the second quarter of the year, official data showed on Monday, underscoring how the prime minsister’s “Abenomics” growth programme has yet to grain traction.

Economists have always feared that once everybody starts printing money, one player would break ranks. If that player is massive – like China – the impact would be to export stagnation to the rest of the worldOne of the strangest things about China’s shock currency devaluation is that nobody outside the government’s secretive HQ in central Beijing really knows why they’ve done it. Since China slashed the value of the yuan against the dollar, the financial world has been forced into a guessing game: do they mean to start a currency war with the US and their Asian rivals – or are they just making a tactical response to a tricky situation?It’s a question not just with global ramifications but parochial ones. When Yvette Cooper slammed Jeremy Corbyn’s call for “people’s quantitative easing” – printing money and spending it on infrastructure instead of debt – she was, in her own way, plunging Labour into the same debate as the wider one triggered by China.Related: The end of capitalism has begun Continue reading...

Ma Jun seeks to assuage fears of tit-for-tat devaluations with US, Europe and Japan after its shock interventions last week, but warns of further volatilityChina’s central bank has warned of further volatility in the yuan but reiterated that Beijing had no intention of sparking a “currency war” following a series of shock devaluations last week.The chief economist at the People’s Bank of China, Ma Jun, said the Chinese government had “no intention or need to participate in a currency war”.Related: Eight reasons why China’s currency crisis matters to us allRelated: China's economic mandarins are proving to be human after all Continue reading...

Jeremy Hunt is trying to improve quality but George Osborne is determined to keep on cutting. It’s not good news for the NHSDavid Cameron likes to boast that not a day has been wasted since his unexpected triumph 100 days ago. That may be the case. But it’s also true that ministers are scampering around like jugglers keeping improbable numbers of plates balanced at the same time. In several departments, most of all at health, it is looking increasingly likely that even as agile a minister as Jeremy Hunt will be unable to avoid an almighty crash very soon.Last month, Mr Hunt went to the King’s Fund, the impartial and long-established health policy thinktank, to set out his plans for the next five years. Mr Hunt is already unusual, a member of a small band of health secretaries (headed by the NHS’s founder Aneurin Bevan) who’s stayed in his job, one of the toughest in cabinet, after an election. But on Monday the King’s Fund is publishing its assessment of progress since May, and its conclusion is that he may be in office, but increasingly it is the Treasury that is in power. This marks the denouement of the ambition of Mr Cameron’s first health secretary, Andrew Lansley, to devolve power away from Whitehall. For all trusts, even the supposedly independent foundation trusts, and increasingly for patients facing lengthening waits, the result is already serious, and likely to get worse. Continue reading...

German chancellor tries to reassure sceptical MPs ahead of Bundestag vote by saying IMF will take part in €86bn bailoutAngela Merkel has said that she expects the International Monetary Fund to take part in a new €86bn (£60bn) bailout for Greece, as the German chancellor prepares to face Bundestag opposition to the package in a vote on Wednesday. In an attempt to reassure sceptical MPs, Merkel said the head of the IMF, Christine Lagarde, would ensure the fund’s participation if conditions on Greek pension reform and debt relief were met.Related: Greece needs further debt relief after third bailout deal in five years, says IMF chiefRelated: Why is Germany so tough on Greece? Look back 25 years | Dirk Laabs Continue reading...

The debate over an interest rate hike labours on in both the UK and the US, but static pay and minimal inflation means ultra-low rates are staying putAugust 1975. Harold Wilson was prime minister. Gerald Ford had been in the White House for a year following Richard Nixon’s resignation. Steven Spielberg’s Jaws was the summer blockbuster and inflation in Britain hit a postwar peak of 27%.Statutory incomes policy was Wilson’s response to the cost of living crisis in what now seems like a completely different world. With inflation non-existent, today’s central banks have a big decision to make. Is it safe to go back in the water and start raising interest rates for the first time since the global financial crisis and recession of 2007-09? Continue reading...

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney may hope otherwise but it’s a safe bet that rockbottom rates will stay rockbottom this year and nextIt’s a safe bet that Britain’s rock-bottom interest rates are going to stay at rock bottom, this year and next. That is the message from the global economy, where all the signs point to low inflation for years to come, robbing central banks of any reason to raise the base rates that set the benchmark for mortgages, overdrafts and loans.Some central banks might even be forced to pump more funds into their economies through those inelegantly titled quantitative-easing programmes just to keep inflation from sinking again into negative territory. Continue reading...

Christine Lagarde insists burden is unsustainable and warns fund will not participate without ‘concrete agreement’ on debt reliefGreece needs more significant debt relief from its creditors, the head of the International Monetary Fund said, after the bankrupt country accepted tough conditions to secure its third bailout deal in five years.The first €26bn of a package worth more than three times that will be disbursed within days after the government in Athens grudgingly approved the agreement at the end of a marathon debate, and Germany backed down on its opposition to rescuing Greece.Related: Alexis Tsipras is down but far from out Continue reading...

The publication last week of the debt deal signed by Alexis Tsipras has laid bare an alarming programme of social revolution and pervasive oversightOn Channel 4’s The Three Day Nanny, modern-day Mary Poppins Kathryn Mewes arrives in a household of tantrum-prone tots and has just 72 hours to transform them with tough love and discipline into model family members. Judging by Greece’s latest bailout deal, its lenders, led by the German government, are adopting much the same approach.It was already clear in the wake of eurozone leaders’ marathon all-night talks last month that the governing leftist party Syriza was being punished for its temerity in challenging the eurozone orthodoxy of austerity.Once it gets down to the nitty-gritty, the abrogation of political control signalled by the memorandum is extraordinary Continue reading...

The Chinese leadership’s devaluation of the yuan delivered a temporary shock to financial markets, but its longer-term effects may be felt around the globeAfter China unexpectedly devalued its currency last week, one City economist shrugged despairingly and said: “It’s August.” While it’s meant to be a time for heading for the beach or kicking back in the sunshine with the kids, August has often witnessed the first cracks that presaged what later became profound shifts in the tectonic plates of the global economy — from the Russian debt default in 1998, to what Northern Rock boss Adam Applegarth called “the day the world changed,” when the first ripples of the credit crunch were felt in 2007; to August 2011, when ratings agency Standard and Poor’s sent shockwaves through financial markets by stripping America of its triple-AAA credit rating.Taking the long view, last week’s devaluation by China, which left the yuan about 3% weaker against the dollar, was relatively modest — sterling had lost 16% of its value in 1967 when Harold Wilson sought to reassure the British public about the “pound in your pocket”. Continue reading...

After months of arguments, Greece’s third loan programme has finally been approved by eurozone ministers tonight.... meaning debt relief could follow this autumn

Jean-Claude Juncker claims Greece will ‘irreversibly’ remain part of the single currency after eurozone finance ministers approve the new dealGreece clinched a three-year bailout worth €86bn (£60bn) after parliamentarians in Athens backed the deal, and Germany backed down on its opposition to the third rescue of the bankrupt country in five years.A meeting of eurozone finance ministers in Brussels representing the country’s main creditors agreed to launch the new bailout with €26bn being disbursed next week following six months of bitter recrimination that almost saw the country, under the leftwing government of Alexis Tsipras, becoming the first to exit the single currency.Related: Alexis Tsipras hit by Syriza rebellion as Greece approves bailout dealRelated: Alexis Tsipras is down but far from outRelated: Tsipras could become the leader Greece needs – if he can survive politically | David Patrikarakos Continue reading...

This explosion for Jeremy Corbyn isn’t about Corbyn as such; the political situation on the left has been building for years with no outlet – this is why the SNP stormed it when they took on a left mantle. Why Caroline Lucas increased her majority in Brighton. It is even why, to a degree, a section of older Labour voted for Ukip as a strong protest. These are manifestations of Labour’s failure.The immediate support for Corbyn’s nomination was because he was at least on the right tracks, with the bonus that he is a man of great integrity. Everyone on the broad left then saw a chance to reset the agenda and move away from the rigid pro-austerity orthodoxy, and with a backdrop of economic crisis, wars, falling living standards, tuition fees etc, we have a perfect storm from the establishment’s perspective. This is a serious movement with serious intent that has seen through the veil. There is also the Blair effect – a shift to Corbyn as a reaction to his toxicity. Be prepared for Gordon Brown to weigh in, too, just as in the independence campaign. I’m looking forward to the celebrations.

Whether it’s the yuan or the euro, the lesson of history is that the currency should be arranged around the economy. Not the other way aroundHistory is littered with upside-down verdicts about exchange rates. In the Britain of 1925, for example, there were misguided cheers when Churchill pushed industry into the doldrums by pretending the first world war had never happened, and forcing sterling back up to its 1914 parity. In 1992, misguided tears accompanied the UK’s inelegant tumble out of the exchange rate mechanism, a long-dreaded devaluation which proved a terrific stimulus for recovery. In this week’s headlines, currency gyrations have once again been causing confusion.Greece was said to have shuffled “back from the edge” by clinging on to the euro, while China, by pushing the yuan’s value down, was described as pushing the world “to the brink” of a currency war. The real contrast cannot be measured in steps from any precipice. It is between Athens reordering a stricken economy around a currency, and Beijing rearranging its money to fit in with the needs of its economy. By signing up to the fresh dose of austerity, which the Greek parliamenton Friday accepted as the price of remaining in the single currency club, Alexis Tsipras’s leftwing government has fallen into line with respectable financial opinion, while submitting its families and factories to disruptive adjustments. But Beijing displayed disdain for the expectation of the currency markets, as it moved to shore up the stability of Chinese business. Continue reading...

Beijing watchers are growing concerned over the economic and political signals coming out of the world’s second-largest economyIt has been a tough year for China. Premier Li Keqiang’s plan to have slower but better balanced growth has run into difficulties and Beijing’s struggle to transform its economic model has prompted fears that the world’s second-biggest economy could be the source of the next global downturn.Here are five warning signs that have set seasoned China watchers worrying that what started out as an exercise in rebalancing and controlled liberalisation might result in a hard landing. Continue reading...

In accepting the latest bailout package, the Greek prime minister has incurred the wrath of many in his own party. His welcome pragmatism may cost him dearIn times of crisis, leadership is vital – and no country is now experiencing as much of a crisis (at least in the financial sense) as Greece. But its leader, prime minister Alexis Tsipras, who previously held no government position whatsoever, and took power at the relatively young age of 40, has yet to prove himself. In fact, the true test of his leadership is only just beginning.This may seem like a strange, almost counterintuitive thing to say about a man who has led Greece in the midst of an almost existential crisis for the past eight months. But now is the time when Greece, and the EU, will find out whether Tsipras truly has what it takes. Up until now he has been little more than negotiator-in-chief with Greece’s creditors and – given that his party Syriza was forced to renege on all of its promises to fight EU-required austerity – a pretty bad one at that. Continue reading...

The Labour leadership frontrunner has proposed ‘people’s QE’ to fund infrastructure, instead of banks, but Yvette Cooper says it is bad economics

Uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the Greek crisis dented consumer and business confidence, especially in FranceA slump in French manufacturing and construction sapped the strength of the eurozone economy in the second quarter, pushing the 19-member currency bloc’s GDP growth rate down to 0.3% from 0.4% in the first three months of the year.A solid performance by Germany and continuing expansion, albeit modest, in Italy offset the figures from Paris, which showed that the second-largest economy in the currency bloc failed to expand between April and the end of June.Related: Eurozone growth weaker than forecast as French economy stagnates - live updates Continue reading...

Prime minister could face a confidence vote next week as he falls short of 120 votes he needs to survive a censure motionAfter a tumultuous, often ill-tempered and at times surreal all-night debate, Greek MPs voted early on Friday to approve a new multibillion euro bailout deal aimed at keeping their debt-stricken country afloat.Related: Greek bailout vote and eurozone GDP growth figures - live updates Continue reading...

Greece needs serious debt relief, not token measures: it is about time lenders accepted that piecemeal measures are pointless when debt ratios reach 200%The good news for the International Monetary Fund, which has been saying for ages that Greece’s debts are unsustainable, is that European lenders now seem to agree.There are “serious concerns” about the sustainability of the country’s debts, the three European institutions negotiating the latest bailout said on Thursday. They think Greece’s debts will peak at 201% of GDP in 2016, which is roughly what the IMF said a month ago when it projected a high “close to 200% of GDP in the next two years”. Continue reading...

Research into impact of organised crime groups on global economy found their presence in a region can reduce GDP per capita by 20%When mafia bosses move in, it’s bad news for the local economy as well as for law and order, according to academic research which suggests the presence of organised crime in a region can slash GDP per capita by a catastrophic 20% over three decades.A series of articles in August’s Economic Journal brings together the latest research on the impact of organised crime groups on the global economy. Continue reading...

Pharmacists and bakers are among businessses worried that the latest Greece rescue deal, while pushing competition, will harm community enterprisesChristos Vouldis doesn’t see why international institutions like the European Central Bank should tell him how to run his bakery. Nikolleta Stefanidi, meanwhile, is worried for the elderly people who come to her Athens neighbourhood pharmacy for their medicine.Air and sea ports and the national grid are to be privatised as part of Greece’s latest rescue deal under the new three-year bailout. Taxes will be raised on powerful shipping firms, and VAT increased at an estimated cost to the average Greek household of €650 a year.

Recent attempts to fine-tune the economy, devalue the yuan or cool the stock market have proved ham-fisted and misguidedThe economic wizards of Beijing have feet of clay after all. That’s the growing sense after China’s currency fell for a third day and the deputy governor of its central bank was forced to hold a press conference at which he insisted this was all part of a grand plan.Zhang Xiaohui didn’t quite say “devaluation, what devaluation?” just as Jim Callaghan never quite said “crisis, what crisis?” during the Winter of Discontent. Both men were intent on showing that their governments were fully in control even though they were not. For UK politicians in the 1970s this was a familiar sensation; for China’s mandarins it is an entirely new experience.

Introducing an alternative currency is not particularly difficult as long as the fundamentals of currency design are understood by its architectsThe recent Greek capitulation under pressure from other euro member countries, led by Germany, demonstrates that euro members have de facto ceded sovereignty over fiscal policy to the EU. While this arrangement may be acceptable to some countries, ­­perhaps even Greece,­­ it will be resisted by others.However, as the Greek failure also demonstrates, any eurozone country wishing to restore fiscal sovereignty, or restructure some of their debt, or implement any policy or set of policies that runs afoul of the preferences of certain Eurogroup finance ministers will have near­-zero negotiating leverage if they fail to plan, credibly and in advance, for the introduction of a viable alternative currency.Related: Greek economy posts surprise recovery ahead of bailout vote – live Continue reading...

Analysis by trio of European creditors forecasts Greek debt to peak at 201% of GDP in 2016 and that debt relief may be necessaryGreece’s European creditors have underlined the temporary nature of the country’s surprise return to growth by warning that they have “serious concerns” about the spiralling debts of the eurozone’s weakest member.The economic news came as Greece’s parliament met in emergency session on Thursday to ratify a new bailout deal, although it was unclear whether the multibillion-euro agreement had the vital backing of Germany.Related: Greek economy posts surprise recovery ahead of bailout vote – live Continue reading...

A victory for Jeremy Corbyn will be a win for global corporations, the City and the savagery of Osbornomics. Labour can win again, but only with a credible leaderThe Labour party is erupting. As ballot papers go out tomorrow, the number electing a new leader has tripled to an astounding 610,000. But they need to remember they are still a few straws in the giant haystack of the real electorate.Some infiltrators will be weeded out, but most newcomers are likely to be sincere Corbyn believers. Tony Blair’s second and more ferocious intervention is unlikely to persuade them. Indeed, his “modernising” wing, so aggressive from day one in their support for the unlikely Liz Kendall, helped stoke the Corbyn phenomenon and divide the party. It’s they who seem like the outsiders from yesteryear, still harping on about “reform” of public services that simply won’t be there by 2020. Putting the party back together will take a leader of rare skill.Related: Cooper speech and Blair warning: Politics live - readers' editionThis isn’t religion, it’s about how to save Sure Start, abolish the bedroom tax, stop savage benefit sanctions Continue reading...

Deputy central bank governor, Zhang Xiaohui, says yuan is close to ‘market levels’ after two days of declinesChina’s central bank sought on Thursday to allay fears it would engineer a continued fall in the yuan in a move that brought calm to global markets rocked this week by a shock series of devaluations.

Labour market flexibility has kept wages growth down while demand was weak, but it remains to be seen whether it will push up wages when demand returnsFigures released on Wednesday by the Australian Bureau of Statistics show that wages grew by a record low amount in the past year – just 2.27% for private and public workers together. For workers in the private sector alone, wages grew by just 2.20% – another record that continues the poor run of below-average growth.The annual growth of 2.27% dipped low enough to just break the old record set in the March quarter of 2.29%. It now means wages growth has been below average for two and half years, with little sign of turning:Related: Fear of a wages blowout has officially proved overblown Continue reading...

Central bank weakens currency further by 1.1% after previous official cuts that put global financial markets on edgeChina cut the reference rate for its currency for the third straight day on Thursday, after the surprise devaluation of the yuan this week unsettled global financial markets.The central bank put the yuan’s central parity rate at 6.4010 yuan for US$1, the China Foreign Exchange Trade System said, a drop of 1.11% from the previous day’s 6.3306.Related: China stuns financial markets by devaluing yuan for second day running Continue reading...

After securing a heavily negotiated third bailout, Greece now faces stringent regulations regarding its financial futureNew details have emerged of the extraordinarily detailed new memorandum of understanding struck between Greece and its creditors in exchange for an €86bn bailout. The actions Athens have agreed to take are divided into four “pillars”:Related: Greece surprises with 0.8% economic growth in second quarterRelated: Greek bailout terms to give eurozone vast powers over policymaking Continue reading...

Number of people in work was 63,000 lower in second quarter and nearly 75% of employment growth was among non-UK nationalsEmployment opportunities in Britain’s stalling labour market are largely going to workers from the rest of the European Union, according to the latest official data showing a second monthly increase in the number of people out of work.Highlighting the impact of the enlargement of the EU since the turn of the millennium to include former Soviet bloc countries, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said almost three-quarters of the employment growth in the past year was accounted for by non-UK citizens.Related: Figures do not prove EU migrants are taking new UK jobs or driving down pay Continue reading...

The YouGov poll in July (Anti-austerity agenda a vote loser, poll reveals, 5 August) is surprising, not that 56% (of the 3,000 electorate sample) agreed that “we must live within our means, so cutting the deficit is the top priority”, but rather that 44% did not. This is the dogma that has been pumped out relentlessly by George Osborne, all three main political parties, the City and business establishments, and the rightwing 70% of the media for five years. It is extraordinary that such an orchestrated barrage, opposed not even by the Labour party, should command support from only slightly over half the population.And of course the 44% who disagreed or were not convinced by austerity were right. We should indeed live within our means, but the best way to do that is by growth, not by endless cuts. Despite five years of grinding austerity, the deficit is still an enormous £90bn, having been cut by only £24bn over the last three years. At that rate it will take another 11 years to pay off the deficit. Meanwhile, growth in the previous three quarters halved from 0.8% to a measly 0.4% and is now a very fragile and unbalanced 0.7%. We thus have the worst of all worlds – endless cuts, a debt mountain marooned at a huge, hardly reducing level, and deflating growth. If only the Labour party could speak out and tell the truth about this, the 44% doubters and disbelievers in austerity would soon become an irresistible majority. Continue reading...

A 29-page document setting out conditions of €85bn deal shows Greece faces more austerity and health, welfare, pensions and tax overhaul

Its slowdown is worrying, but the Chinese financial system isn’t as integrated with the world as America’sAccording to a modern version of Metternich’s saying, when the US sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold. Does the same now apply to the world’s second largest economy? If China implodes, could it drag down the global economy with it?China’s stock market has fallen by about a third since the middle of July, and this week it has devalued its currency, the RMB, not once but twice, sending shockwaves through financial markets. Despite the seeming panic, so far prices have only fallen back to the same levels as at the end of March. In any case, fewer than one in 10 Chinese households invest in stocks and shares, and on average the stock market accounts for less than 15% of household wealth. So the tens of millions of small Chinese investors who play the stock market have mostly been betting relatively small amounts and haven’t lost their shirts.Related: China stuns financial markets by devaluing yuan for second day runningWith its own newly formed middle class, China now has its own consumption base to serve Continue reading...

Ben Cavender, principal at China Market Research Group, analyses why China chose to devalue the yuan for a second day running. Stocks and currencies fell sharply across the region as investors expressed their concerns over a possible currency war and faltering economy. Cavender says the move is intended to strengthen exports and make Chinese good more competitiveRead: China stuns financial markets by devaluing yuan for second day running Continue reading...

Western central banks advised to resist raising interest rates and told to prepare to ward off deflationary slump in face of cheaper Chinese exports“Make no mistake, this is the start of something big, something ugly.” City economist Albert Edwards rarely minces his words, but his reaction to China’s devaluation, which sent shockwaves through global markets, underlined how powerfully Beijing’s move may be felt thousands of miles away.Edwards, of the bank Société Générale, argues that as well as creating a challenge for China’s Asian rivals, by making its exports more competitive, a cheaper yuan will send “a tidal wave of deflation” breaking over the world economy.Related: Why has China devalued its currency now and what impact will it have? Continue reading...

Parliament to reconvene for emergency session to ratify bailout text amid uncertainty over whether €85bn deal has backing of all EU member states

Stocks, currencies and commodities fall sharply across region as investors fear a stalling China economy and possible currency war despite Beijing’s assurances