The Greek leader’s headache echoes that of his predecessor Andreas Papandreou. He is leading a country at a crossroads between west and east, past and futureA freshly elected Greek radical leftwing prime minister takes on Europe’s institutions. He wants to change the way things are done. He is astutely aware of the proud nationalism that runs through Greece’s history. He appeals to those who have felt downtrodden. He has misgivings about the west in general, liberal economics in particular, and wants people to believe he can turn elsewhere – occasionally, to Moscow. He has read Trotsky and Gramsci. He likes to illustrate his nonconformism in the way he dresses.Remind you of anyone? Yes, it could be Alexis Tsipras. But this also fits the profile of Andreas Papandreou. In 1981, the leader of the Panhellenic Socialist Movement (Pasok) came to power in Greece, and opened an unexpected chapter in the country’s political life as well as in the evolution of Europe.It is hard to overstate the link between Greece’s democratisation and the European projectRelated: Greece faces a future as Europe’s outcast – a yes vote is the only solution| Christopher Pissarides Continue reading...

The international lender says Greece needs debt relief – but why did it take so long for it to admit it?Greece needs €50bn-€60bn (£35bn-£42bn) of extra funds over the next three years and large-scale debt relief to create “a breathing space”, says the International Monetary Fund. In Athens, the Greek prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, could be forgiven for shouting: “I told you so.” Debt relief has been a central plank of his demands from the day he was elected in January.

In the villages of Archaia Nemea, debate about the snap referendum is raging – with both Syriza and opposition campaigners claiming to have the upper handNo one is going tell Niko Papadopoulos how to vote in Sunday’s referendum.A no vote to the last terms offered by Greece’s lenders would be a catastrophe, said the owner of Archaia Nemea’s sole, tiny supermarket. “Let them cut my pension. I want to stay in Europe.”Related: How long can Greece survive without support from its creditors?Related: Greek debt crisis: Yanis Varoufakis says he'll resign if Greece votes Yes - live updatesRelated: Greek pensioners queue at dawn as banks allow a €120 withdrawal Continue reading...

Work emails laced with jolly topical references to the weather only make me even more Eeyore-ish about it allIt’s happened. It has come to pass. Now I know we really are in the middle of a blistering summer heatwave, and the temperature in Britain is officially higher than an exploding sun. It’s not the skin cancer warnings or the Hieronymus Bosch press photographs of Brighton beach. It’s getting work emails from people saying: “Hope you’re enjoying the lovely weather!”It has become de rigueur to begin emails with a kind of jolly topical reference to the sunshine – as compulsory as signing off with “Best”. They hope I’m enjoying the lovely weather? What? No, I am not enjoying the lovely weather, am I? I’m indoors grumpily dealing with work emails like this. And even when I am outdoors, I become even more Eeyore-ishly resentful of the sunshine beating down. Continue reading...

International lender issues strong message to Europe by warning that Athens’ debts are unsustainable and it needs 20-year grace period on debt repaymentsThe International Monetary Fund has electrified the referendum debate in Greece after it conceded that the crisis-ridden country needs up to €60bn (£42bn) of extra funds over the next three years and large-scale debt relief to create “a breathing space” and stabilise the economy.With days to go before Sunday’s knife-edge referendum that the country’s creditors have cast as a vote on whether it wants to keep the euro, the IMF revealed a deep split with Europe as it warned that Greece’s debts were “unsustainable”.Related: IMF tells Greece: no debt relief before reforms Continue reading...

Finance minister says he will resign if Greek referendum votes yes to accept troika’s debt-bailout termsThe Greek finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis, has pledged to resign if his country votes yes to the bailout plan proposed by international lenders.Varoufakis, the academic-turned-minister who has riled his eurozone counterparts, said he would not remain finance minister on Monday if Greece voted yes.

With three days to go until Greece's referendum, columnist Jonathan Freedland looks back over a tumultuous few days with economics editor Larry Elliott. Momentum appears to be shifting towards a yes vote, meaning a resignation by prime minster Alexis Tsipras looks increasingly likely. After last-minute attempts from him and the government to halt Sunday's referendum, the International Monetary Fund has turned down Greece's requests for further debt relief Continue reading...

The best rescue programmes are those in which the debtor country proposes the policy changes - rather than being imposed from the outsideAs the Greek crisis evolves, it is important to understand that a successful structural adjustment programme requires strong country ownership. Even if negotiators overcome the most recent sticking points, it will be difficult to trust in their implementation if the Greek people remain unconvinced. That has certainly been the experience so far.And without structural reform, there is little chance that the Greek economy will see sustained stability and growth – not least because official lenders are unwilling to continue extending an unreformed Greece significantly more money than it is asked to pay. (This has been the case through most of the crisis, even if one would never know it from the world press coverage.)

Markit/Cips PMI data signals a further rebound from the 22-month low recorded in AprilUK building firms reported bulging order books in June to defy previous forecasts of a slow and steady recovery after the general election.Construction data signalled a further rebound in the sector’s output growth from the 22-month low recorded in April that many economists took to be a signal of nervousness ahead of an election that could have brought higher property taxes under a Labour-led coalition.Related: 'At some point we will have no one coming into the construction industry' Continue reading...

Research finds eastern Europe most hostile to benefits of immigration, despite low levels of migrantsCountries with larger migrant populations are paradoxically better at absorbing them into the workforce, a groundbreaking new report on integration within the world’s richest countries has revealed.

Christine Lagarde comments likely to infuriate Greek government, whose plea for debt relief and bailout extension was rejectedGreece must sign up to economic reforms before it gets debt relief, the International Monetary Fund, one of the country’s main creditors, has said.Christine Lagarde, the head of the fund, said it would “be preferable to see a deliberate move towards reforms” in Greece before debt relief was offered.

Asian shares lost early steadiness and Chinese stocks got off to a weak start on Thursday, while upbeat US economic data helped the dollar gainAsian shares lost early steadiness and Chinese stocks got off to a weak start on Thursday, while upbeat US economic data helped the dollar gain as investors globally opted for caution due to Greece’s standoff with its creditors.MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down 0.13% following yet another weak opening in China’s benchmark indexes. Tokyo’s Nikkei climbed 1.1% thanks to a weaker yen, while South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.3%. Continue reading...

MIT's anti-disciplinarian maverick Cesar Hidalgo argues for a new way of looking at data which could fundamentally change how we understand the world Continue reading...

Greece’s confrontation with the euro overlords will shape resistance to austerity – and the future of the whole European UnionIt’s now clear that Germany and Europe’s powers that be don’t just want the Greek government to bend the knee. They want regime change. Not by military force, of course – this operation is being directed from Berlin and Brussels, rather than Washington.But that the German chancellor Angela Merkel and the troika of Greece’s European and International Monetary Fund creditors are out to remove the elected government in Athens now seems beyond serious doubt. Everything they have done in recent weeks in relation to the leftist Syriza administraton, elected to turn the tide of austerity, appears designed to divide or discredit Alexis Tsipras’s government.Related: We're not traitors, insist Greece's yes campaignersSyriza's' achilles heel has been its commitment to ending austerity while remaining in the euro Continue reading...

The debt-stricken country is in deep trouble already but things could still get worse for the economy, the currency, public sector and banksAfter the Greeks dramatically walked out of talks in Brussels last Friday and announced a referendum, a question has been posed: how long can Athens survive without support from its creditors before it collapses?Related: Treatment of Greece and the future of the European project | Letters Continue reading...

Rafael Behr is right that Greece’s tragedy does not invalidate the case for the EU (The EU is not a conspiracy against democracy, 1 July). But he is too kind to Europe’s leaders, who display precious little humility or respect for national feeling. As well as demanding payments that Greece cannot possibly make and seeking remedies that will further weaken its economy, they are causing huge suffering to many of their fellow Europeans.Their behaviour is not only stupid, it is also immoral. So there is a morality tale here, and you do not have to be either a Ukip supporter or a member of the “hard left” to feel distaste for the bullying, supercilious approach of Jean-Claude Juncker et al. The yes campaign in Britain’s EU referendum may well achieve a reluctant acceptance that staying in is better than getting out. But after the EU’s desperate mishandling of the Greek crisis, it is very hard to feel much enthusiasm for what used to be called the European project.

The Tories always use Project Fear to get their way at the ballot box, and the same tactic is used when the Greek people are asked to choose between the hell they know and one they can only imagineProject Fear stalks Europe. In suits and ties and chaffeur-driven cars, in hurried meetings, in corridors blaring with strip lights, around the cabinet tables, in meetings where strategy is scrawled on whiteboards, in advertising agencies where earnest young people compete to unsettle us in the most effective ways.Perhaps I am too old and dreamy to think that politics was ever about anything other than fear; that hope is a necessity not a luxury. Surely I know, really, that when you want someone to vote a certain way you have to frighten them into thinking that any alternative is worse. We may not know what we like, but we sure as hell as know what we don’t like. Continue reading...

Criticism of Greek prime minister reinforces view that Germany might refuse to negotiate with Syriza administration on rescue package until after referendumBerlin has delivered a blistering attack on Greece’s beleaguered radical prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, accusing him of lying to his own people and seeking scapegoats for the country’s misery everywhere but in his own ranks.The German government dismissed desperate attempts by Athens to salvage some form of bailout, prompting Tsipras to hit back, accusing the country’s creditors of trying to “blackmail” Greek voters with dire warnings that a vote against austerity in this weekend’s referendum would be a vote to leave the euro. Continue reading...

Consumption apparently down 70%, tourism drying up and companies face struggle to pay for wholesale food ahead of 5 July referendumGiorgos Kourasis knows exactly how many people have walked through the door of his tavern since Monday, because he has had nothing to do but wait and count.“The number,” he says in full knowledge of the ironic punch he is about to pull, “is zero. Absolutely no one has come and sat at a table for the first time in the 80 years that we’ve had our family business. “ Continue reading...

Analysis: Athens knows that without support from the ECB, capital controls and withdrawal limits would just be the startWhen Alistair Darling was faced with the hair-raising news in autumn 2008 that Royal Bank of Scotland and Halifax were on the brink of being forced to close their cash machines, there was never a serious doubt that, whatever Mervyn King’s moral qualms, the Bank of England’s job was to underpin the UK’s financial system as “lender of last resort”.Yanis Varoufakis, the Greek finance minister, and his colleagues in Athens have also faced the prospect of a total financial collapse this week, but key decisions about whether, and on what terms, to prop up its struggling banks are being taken hundreds of miles away in Frankfurt. Continue reading...

Banks across Greece opened on Wednesday to allow pensioners without debit cards limited access to their fundsGreek pensioners began queuing before dawn at up to 1,000 banks around the country which opened on Wednesday to let them collect the €120 (£85) they will be allowed this week.Hours after Greece’s bailout programme with its creditors expired and the country became the first in the developed world to miss an IMF loan repayment, Greek pensioners without debit cards were at last able to withdraw some cash.Related: Greece debt crisis: Alexis Tsipras backs down – live Continue reading...

Pensioners queue outside Greece's national bank in Athens on Wednesday to collect their retirement cheques. The country has re-opened 1,000 branches for OAPs who do not have ATM cards. Banks are expected to remain closed for other purposes until 6 July, as part of capital controls imposed this week after the European Central Bank froze financial support needed to keep the Greek banks afloat Continue reading...

Bank vows to protect Britain from escalation of eurozone crisis and says it has been working on contingency plans with Treasury among othersThe precarious position of Greece could pose a risk to the financial system, the Bank of England has warned, as it pledged to intervene to insulate the UK from potential shockwaves caused by any escalation in the eurozone crisis.Setting out its half-yearly assessment of the risks to the UK financial system, the Bank said the outlook remained unchanged over the last six months until the last few days, when Greece closed its banks and then failed to repay a €1.5bn (£1.1bn) loan to the International Monetary Fund.Related: Greece debt crisis: Alexis Tsipras reportedly backs down – live Continue reading...

As the total heads towards a million euros, I am proud of the donors from around the world. This campaign is by the people, for the peopleYou know when you just have a little idea, have a laugh to yourself and then move on with your day? I do that a lot, only on Sunday night, I didn’t let it pass but decided to try it out for real.I wondered, could the people of Europe have a crack at fixing this? Less talk, more direct actionRelated: Briton launches crowdfunding campaign to pay off Greece debtRelated: Greece debt crisis: creditors consider next steps after IMF default – live Continue reading...

Athens scrambles to pay wages and pensions after becoming the first EU country to default on its debtsGreece is waiting to hear whether it will be granted emergency aid from the European Central Bank, as it scrambles to pay wages and pensions without the financial lifeline of an EU bailout.

Euro fades only a little to $1.1136 as Greece becomes first developed economy to default on International Monetary Fund loanAsian share markets were in a guarded mood on Wednesday as Greece became the first developed economy to default on a loan with the IMF, setting the scene for another day of uneasy action.Although an unwelcome milestone for Athens, it came as no surprise to investors after weeks of stop-start talks, and the euro faded only a little, to $1.1136.Related: Greek failure to make IMF payment deals historic blow to eurozone Continue reading...

Athens left without financial lifeline following fortnight of non-stop brinkmanship at highest level of EU leadership

The head of the Eurogroup, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, speaks to the press on Tuesday evening and says that it is too late to agree a deal to save Greece from defaulting at midnight. Appearing after an emergency conference call of the currency bloc's finance ministers, Dijsselbloem says that Greece's request to extend the current bailout package 'simply isn't possible' Continue reading...

Larry Elliott’s main argument in favour of HS2 (Why ‘build it, they will come’ might just work for HS2, 29 June) is a flimsy basis for spending £50bn of public money. If the key objective is to provide a catalyst for growth in the Midlands and the north, it is no less likely that HS2 will simply further increase the economic dominance of London and the south-east. The same £50bn really could be spent on transport projects that would benefit the north and the national economy with much greater certainty. And given Network Rail’s record in carrying out much more straightforward projects, how can one have any faith that HS2 can be built within budget or on schedule (whose timeline is already stretching into the 2030s)? If the government is determined to press ahead with this highly dubious scheme, it could at least save several billion pounds, greatly simplify and shorten its implementation, and – during the many years of planned construction – avoid the inevitable disruption of regular services into Euston and massive economic and social costs for the Euston and Camden Town communities, by switching the London terminus to Old Oak Common (OOC). With the completion of Crossrail, OOC also has the potential to provide much better connectivity for HS2 passengers into central London.

Thousands of Greeks rally in Athens on Tuesday in support of a Yes vote in the referendum to decide on a deal with the European Union. Greece will go to the polls on Sunday to vote on whether to accept a bailout package from Brussels which would save the country from defaulting on their loans. Police estimate over 20,000 protestors turned out to show their support for the reforms package Continue reading...

Greek bailout: the IMF’s reputation has been dented with its overly optimistic projections and wishy-washy stance on debt write-downsOne big loser from Greece’s (likely) default is the reputation of the International Monetary Fund. The IMF, we used to believe, only stepped in when a country’s path to debt sustainability was clear and economic revival could be plotted with reasonable confidence. The organisation’s standing as a global lender of last resort relied on the even-handed application of that principle.In Greece, it’s hard to say the debt was ever sustainable in the world after the global financial crisis of 2007-09. In 2010, when the IMF contributed €30bn to the first bailout programme, Greece hadn’t yet experienced its deep recession. But the risk of deep spending cuts making the position worse was obvious: the unpromising backdrop was a weak eurozone in which banks remained under-capitalised. Continue reading...

With EU leaders refusing to consider a sudden new bailout demand from Alexis Tsipras prior to Sunday’s referendum, Greece looks set to defaultGreece is on the brink of default and insolvency as €240bn of bailout funding comes to an end, with the country either unable or refusing to make a €1.6bn payment to the International Monetary Fund. The failure to resolve the crisis by Tuesday night’s deadline could be a devastating psychological blow to the European project.Related: The Guardian view on the Greek crisis: the European project itself is at stake | EditorialAthens and Brussels buzz with rumours that Tsipras is about to get on a plane to EU headquartersRelated: We're not traitors, insist Greek's yes campaignersRelated: Greece's euro-referendum: 100 Greeks give their view Continue reading...

Yes supporters flood Syntagma Square tonight, as eurozone finance ministers ponder Athens surprise request for a third bailout

Thom Feeney offers postcards of Alexis Tsipras for €3 and has raised €250,000, as ‘while politicians are dithering, the crisis is affecting real people’As the Greek government and its creditors are locked in talks ahead of a deadline for the country to meet a £1.6bn debt repayment, an online crowdfunding campaign started by a London shoe shop worker is aiming to break the impasse by collecting a Greek bailout fund of his own.

Burgeoning citizens’ group – with backing from academics and media magnates – warns of dangers of leaving European Union and euro

Greek prime minister understands that the next few days are a matter of winning hearts and minds and that he needs to rally support for a no voteAlexis Tsipras chose his moment well. What better way to shift attention from the fact that Greece was about to miss a debt payment to the International Monetary Fund and lose its financial lifeline from its creditors than to come up with a new crisis-resolution plan?It little mattered that the new blueprint from Athens had a shelf life of only a couple of hours before Angela Merkel said there could be no fresh negotiations until after Greece’s referendum on Sunday.Related: Greece debt crisis: Thousands of Yes supporters protest, as Tsipras seeks new bailout - live updates Continue reading...

Walmart-owned chain’s sales fall 3.5% after Tesco and Sainsbury’s cut pricesAsda is continuing to bear the brunt of Britain’s bitter supermarket price war, according to an industry survey that showed sales falling sharply at the Walmart-owned grocer.In the 12 weeks to 21 June, Asda’s sales fell 3.5%, making it the worst performer in the sector, according to figures from Kantar Worldpanel. Its performance has deteriorated from last month when the three-month decline was 2.2%.Related: Supermarkets behaving badly – how suppliers can get a fairer deal Continue reading...

Secret documents show creditors’ baseline estimate puts debt at 118% of GDP in 2030, even if it signs up to all tax and spending reforms demanded by troikaGreece would face an unsustainable level of debt by 2030 even if it signs up to the full package of tax and spending reforms demanded of it, according to unpublished documents compiled by its three main creditors.The documents, drawn up by the so-called troika of lenders, support Greece’s argument that it needs substantial debt relief for a lasting economic recovery. They show that, even after 15 years of sustained strong growth, the country would face a level of debt that the International Monetary Fund deems unsustainable. Continue reading...

EU leaders warning about a Greek exit risk hardening support for a no vote. Time to abandon austerity economics and offer a credible recovery planReferendums are the ultimate expression of democracy – I know that from our own recent experience in Scotland. But, unlike that vote and the one that will face the UK as a whole some time in the next 18 months, the vote to be held in Greece this Sunday is a snap plebiscite which doesn’t allow for much campaigning or time for the repercussions of yes or no to be fully understood.Sunday’s vote is also far more than a national question. The effects of this referendum may well be profound and long-lasting, not just for the Greek people, but for the whole European continent. Continue reading...

Much good work already is underway, but there are far more opportunities to ensure that trade helps everyoneOver the past 25 years, an astounding one billion people have lifted themselves out of extreme poverty, reducing by more than half the number of those living in such deplorable conditions.This is great work but we can do even better. In the next 15 years, we believe that international trade, which has boosted economic growth and improved access to new technologies and innovations, has played a significant role in reducing extreme poverty in the past, and it can do so in the future. Continue reading...

The chancellor is not nearly as worried about the trade deficit as he is about the budget deficit – and not nearly as worried as he should beBritain’s balance of payments has never been more deeply in the red. There have been some monster external deficits down the years but the one notched up in 2014 trumped them all.Little is said in official circles about the nation’s current account. George Osborne talks about boosting exports and rebalancing the economy, but, the chancellor is not nearly as worried about the trade deficit as he is about the budget deficit. And not nearly as worried as he should be.Related: UK economy grows faster than first forecast Continue reading...

The IMF may not want to classify any Athens’ failure to pay up on time as a default - but it would be first case of arrears by an advanced economyIf it looks like a default, swims like a default, and quacks like a default, then it’s probably a default.

A rise in the US dollar would spell market turbulence for many developing countries but no widespread crisesThe prospect that the US Federal Reserve will start exiting zero policy rates later this year has fuelled growing fear of renewed volatility in emerging economies’ currency, bond, and stock markets. The concern is understandable: when the Fed signalled in 2013 that the end of its quantitative-easing (QE) policy was forthcoming, the resulting “taper tantrum” sent shockwaves through many emerging countries’ financial markets and economies.Indeed, rising interest rates in the US and the ensuing likely rise in the value of the dollar could, it is feared, wreak havoc among emerging markets’ governments, financial institutions, corporations, and even households. Because all have borrowed trillions of dollars in the last few years, they will now face an increase in the real local-currency value of these debts, while rising US rates will push emerging markets’ domestic interest rates higher, thus increasing debt-service costs further.Related: Joseph Stiglitz: how I would vote in the Greek referendum Continue reading...

GDP rose 0.4% in the first three months of the year as the sharp drop initially predicted for construction sector failed to materialiseBritain’s economy grew faster than initially thought in the opening months of this year but still suffered a marked slowdown compared to the end of 2014.The Office for National Statistics said GDP rose 0.4% in the first quarter from the previous three months. That was in line with City economists’ forecasts after a recent revision to official construction figures showed the sector did not suffer the sharp drop first pencilled in.

The Greek government’s success was built on the lie that it could avert austerity – in the upcoming referendum, it seeks to evade all responsibilityThere is a punchy but elegant Greek phrase that summarises the moment when delusion and deception are exposed: telos pia ta psemmata, the end of lies. You might have thought that point would have arrived on Sunday when it was announced that banks would not be opening the next morning. It did not. It will not arrive with the queues for petrol; or when Greek merchants refuse card payments; or even when supermarkets begin to run out of imported basics.As I drove through the streets of Athens watching worried lines form at every cashpoint, radio bulletins were interrupted by commercial breaks offering cheerful suggestions on how to spend your summer euros. It felt like listening to a voicemail message from a dead relative.Bankruptcy, rupture and isolation will be welcomed with unfathomably foolish prideRelated: This referendum is a fight between the Greeks and Europe’s cruel capitalism | Aditya ChakraborttyRelated: Greece's euro-referendum: 100 Greeks give their view Continue reading...