Britain’s GDP-per-head is finally back to its pre-crisis levels, but factories are struggling to grow

Senior economist at hedge fund returns to Bank of England, replacing David Miles on rate-setting committeeChancellor George Osborne has announced that Gertjan Vlieghe, a senior economist at hedge fund Brevan Howard, will replace David Miles on the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee.The move marks a return to the Bank for the dual British-Belgian national Vlieghe, who was economic assistant to the previous governor Lord Mervyn King. He left that post to work as a bond strategist at Deutsche Bank in London before moving to Brevan Howard, where he is a partner.Related: Why Mark Carney shouldn’t rush to play the rate-rise cardDelighted to appoint Dr Gertjan Vlieghe to Bank's MPC - an economist of outstanding ability with public + private sector experience Continue reading...

Services fuel accelerating GDP pace in third-longest spell of growth since 1955 but there are signs that the spoils are not being shared equallyAfter a sluggish first quarter, the UK economy got going again in the second quarter, with signs even that the long-awaited recovery in living standards is taking root. Chancellor George Osborne says Britain is “motoring ahead”, which is an interesting choice of words given manufacturing shrank.However, he is right that the headlines from Tuesday’s growth figures tell a generally happy tale.We’ve rarely had it so good. Today’s GDP data will confirm UK is enjoying its 3rd-longest spell of growth since 1955. pic.twitter.com/TSlRedG47Z Continue reading...

My medical background has given me the skills to prioritise, troubleshoot and use data to track outcomes – all excellent training for my role at the bankI am writing this at my desk on the 12th floor of the World Bank headquarters in Washington DC. It feels a long way from the hospitals where I began my career. I’m a doctor by training and I often get asked how I ended up running the World Bank president’s delivery unit (PDU).In fact, my medical background prepared me for this role in three big ways: understanding the nature of triage means I can prioritise; formulating a diagnosis means I can troubleshoot; and I have always used data to track prognosis and outcomes. All three are fundamental to my role at the bank, as well as the new approach to development under the leadership of World Bank president Jim Yong Kim.Related: Millions more have a bank account, but what is the impact on global poverty?Related: Open government: a chance to revolutionise the relationship between citizens and their leaders Continue reading...

Accelerating GDP growth rate fans talk of interest rate rise but a 0.3% dip in manufacturing prompts warnings of two-speed economy

Beijing vows to buy stocks to prop up stock market, regulator says, as shares slump then rise after Monday’s frenzied sellingBeijing has vowed to step up its interventions in China’s volatile stock market following a traumatic day on Monday when stocks suffered their greatest losses since 2007.A government-controlled stock-buying agency would “continue to buy stocks to stabilise the market”, said Zhang Xiaojun, a spokesperson with China’s security’s regulator, the CSRC.Related: Stock market advice for China: when in a hole, stop digging Continue reading...

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With ham-fisted interventions, Beijing has turned the stock market into a giant game of guessing how long its props will last. But it is unlikely to change tackEven by recent Chinese standards, the latest stock market plunge was spectacular. Nearly 1,800 stocks – or more than 60% of shares on the main markets in Shanghai and Shenzhen – fell by the daily limit of 10%, thereby triggering a trading suspension. If such a limit had not been in operation, who knows where prices might have settled. An 8.5% overall fall in the Shanghai Composite might have been 18.5% or 28.5%. Almost any guess is credible.Related: Beijing's desperate attempts to control the stock market will end badlyRelated: Greece crisis: Yanis Varoufakis admits 'contingency plan' for euro exit Continue reading...

Demonstrations against falling prices prevent over 400 trucks from bringing in goods from Germany and Spain as president insists government is ‘by their side’French farmers have blockaded roads from Germany and Spain and stopped hundreds of trucks bringing in foreign meat, vegetables and dairy produce in renewed protests against falling prices and cheap imports, despite the French government’s attempts to contain what could soon become a summer of agricultural discontent.

Reforms and action needed urgently as fears over Greece, high unemployment, structural flaws and a still-shaken bank sector slow growthThe International Monetary Fund has warned the eurozone faces a gloomy economic outlook thanks to lingering worries over Greece, high unemployment and a banking sector still battling to shake off the financial crisis.The IMF’s latest healthcheck on the eurozone found it was “susceptible to negative shocks” as growth continues to falter and monetary policymakers run out of ways to help. It called for an urgent “collective push” from the currency union to speed up reforms or else risk years of lost growth.

Strong pound and eurozone crisis mean more companies expect overseas orders to fall rather than rise, according to CBI pollA strong pound and turmoil in the eurozone have left British manufacturers feeling gloomiest for almost four years on demand for exports, according to a business survey.In the latest evidence that exporters are facing a number of challenges, the CBI’s latest quarterly snapshot of manufacturers suggested new overseas orders picked up in the three months to July but that the outlook is gloomier. It highlighted the rise in sterling, which continues to make UK goods more expensive to overseas buyers. Continue reading...

Commodity prices from gold to oil and aluminium to iron ore are tumbling – here are the big fallersJust when investors thought it might be time for a summer lull, financial markets have shifted their focus from the eurozone and its Greek woes to tumbling commodity prices.Related: Anglo American and Lonmin cut jobs amid commodity slump Continue reading...

GDP estimate from the ONS is expected to show the economy expanded by 0.7% in the second quarter of this yearThe latest snapshot of economic growth this week will heat up the debate about when the Bank of England will raise UK interest rates for the first time since the depths of financial crisis.Economists predict official figures on Tuesday will show GDP growth bounced back in the second quarter after a new-year slowdown. Alongside fading worries about the Greek debt crisis and signs of rising living standards, any such recovery in headline growth could fan expectations that the Bank’s policymakers are readying to raise interest rates, perhaps even before the end of the year. Continue reading...

Opposition demands answers after covert proposals attributed to Yanis Varoufakis and fellow ex-minister highlight deep split in Syriza partySome members of Greece’s leftist-led government wanted to raid central bank reserves and hack taxpayer accounts to prepare a return to the drachma, according to reports that highlighted the chaos in the ruling Syriza party.It is not clear how seriously the government considered the plans, attributed to former energy minister Panagiotis Lafazanis and ex-finance minister Yanis Varoufakis. Lafazanis was sacked from his post and Varoufakis resigned earlier this month. However, the revelations have been seized on by opposition parties who are demanding an explanation.Related: Who’d be young and Greek? Searching for a future after the debt crisis Continue reading...

Anti-austerity figures have emerged because young people feel badly let down by centre-left governments such as Blair’s, says Nobel economics laureateA Nobel prize-winning economist has said it is unsurprising that an anti-austerity figure such as Jeremy Corbyn has emerged as a contender for the Labour leadership.Speaking in London on Sunday, Joseph Stiglitz warned that policies from centre-left governments such as Tony Blair’s had undermined the middle-ground message, partly by entrenching wealth for the very few.Membership Event: Guardian Live | The future of Labour: meet the next leaderRelated: Jeremy Corbyn might just be able to unite Britain’s progressive parties | LettersRelated: Joseph Stiglitz: how I would vote in the Greek referendum Continue reading...

The hillside town of Nova Friburgo is home to 1,300 registered underwear retailers and manufacturers but small producers are suffering in the downturnIn an empty shop, on a deserted street, under the shadow of a billboard bearing the image of a 50ft woman in bra and knickers, Fátima Vieira is reconsidering her choice of career.The 54-year old owner of the underwear shop Switch Women moved from Rio de Janeiro to the hillside town of Nova Friburgo five years ago to start her business in the so-called lingerie capital of Brazil.

Sweden and Canada have both suffered the consequences of raising rates too early. No matter how good GDP figures are this week, the Bank should take careBritain’s growth rate returned to Mach 2 speed in the spring and early summer. That’s the consensus among City analysts ahead of official figures out this week, handing George Osborne another golden arrow with which to shoot down his critics.It is the re-emergence of the big-spending consumer (who snaps up a new bed and sofa while ordering a case of wine) that is likely to have prevented the UK economy from repeating the lacklustre growth rate of 0.4% seen in the first three months of the year.If rates go up in November or possibly next February, the betting must be that they will soon come down again Continue reading...

The rhetoric about ‘scroungers’ plays well, but the size of Osborne’s assault on services is so large that he may end up facing a widespread public backlashThe Conservatives are riding high at the moment and Labour are laid flat on the floor. Seldom has a serving chancellor of the exchequer appeared as triumphalist as George Osborne – although memories are evoked of the high points in my old friend Nigel Lawson’s chancellorship during the boom of 1988.However: history demonstrates that Labour is capable of coming back from the dead – eventually. And to my mind, with his naked experiment in social engineering and drastically reducing the size of the state, George Osborne could well be riding for a fall. I for one would not risk too much money backing him to become prime minister.Let’s face it. All this stuff about “one nation” and “compassionate Conservatism” is so much guff Continue reading...

Shareholders must stop sucking companies dry at the expense of innovation, investment and the wellbeing of the workforceIt has been obvious for years that British capitalism is profoundly dysfunctional. In 1970, £10 of every £100 of profit was distributed to shareholders: today, under intense pressure from short-term owners, companies pay out £70. Investment, innovation and productivity have slumped. Few new companies grow to any significant size before they are taken over.Exports have stagnated. The current account deficit is at record proportions. The purpose of companies now is not to do great things, solve great problems or scale up great solutions –why capitalism is potentially the best economic system – it is to become payolas for their disengaged owners and pawns in the next big deal or takeover. Not only the British economy suffers – this process has become the major driver of rising inequality, low pay and insecurity in the workplace as management teams are forced to treat workers as costly commodities rather than allies in business building. Continue reading...

Meetings with European commission, ECB and IMF were supposed to start on Friday but were delayed by organisational issuesTalks between Greece and its international creditors over a new bailout package should go ahead after logistical issues that delayed meetings this week are resolved, a Greek official has said.

Talks on third bailout deal get off to a poor start as troika mission chiefs and Athens fail to agree on where visitors will stay over security concernsIn an inauspicious start to talks over awarding Greece a third bailout, international officials have postponed the negotiations after failing to agree with their hosts where they will stay and how they will operate when in Athens.

Weaker demand from China has caused commodity prices to fall to levels not seen since 2009, and mining groups are feeling the painThe party is over in the mining industry – again. There is a strong whiff of 2009, the year after the great financial crisis. Almost every commodity is falling in price. Assumptions for demand, investment, jobs and shareholders’ dividends are being ripped up.The share price of once-mighty Anglo American illustrates the industry’s feast-or-famine characteristics. Between 2003 and 2009, Anglo’s shares travelled from 900p to £33 and then back to 900p; after 2009, they rose again to £33 but are now 778p.Related: Anglo American and Lonmin cut jobs amid commodity slumpRelated: North York Moors mineral mine set to get go-ahead Continue reading...

Greece needs to sell off €50bn worth of state assets such as airports and marinas quickly as part of its third bailout deal. But is such a plan realistic?In the early days of the Greek debt crisis, two German politicians came up with a radical solution: Greece should sell off some of its uninhabited islands and property to pay back its creditors. “Sell your islands you bankrupt Greeks! And sell the Acropolis too!” was how the German tabloid Bild summed up their idea.

Job heading up merged Ladbrokes-Coral business increases pressure on City regulators to report on Hornby’s role in lender’s demiseAndy Hornby, the former boss of failed bank HBOS, will secure a senior role in the gambling business formed from the merger of Ladbrokes and Gala Coral, putting pressure on City regulators to publish a long-awaited report on his role in the mortgage lender’s implosion.Hornby is to be appointed chief operating officer of the whole group and will pick up a large bonus following the merger, which is expected to be announced on Friday after more than a month of talks. Continue reading...

Officials from EU, ECB and IMF creditors prepare to return to capital for talks on third bailout despite Alexis Tsipras’ personal pledge against itGreece is bracing for the return to Athens of officials representing the reviled “troika” of creditors as the debt-stricken country prepares to start negotiations for a third bailout.Mission chiefs with the EU, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund fly into the Greek capital on Friday for talks on a proposed €86bn (£60bn) bailout, the third emergency funding programme for Athens since 2010. Continue reading...

Rolling coverage of the Greek debt crisis, the world economy and the financial markets, after Athens takes another step towards a third bailout

The deal between Brussels and Athens is actually a good one for both sidesNow that Greek banks have reopened and the government has made scheduled payments to the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund, does Greece’s near-death experience mark the end of the eurozone crisis? The conventional answer is a clear no.According to most economists and political commentators, the latest Greek bailout was little more than an analgesic. It will dull the pain for a short period, but the euro’s deep-seated problems will metastasize, with a dismal prognosis for the single currency and perhaps even the European Union as a whole.Related: Greece bailout agreement: key points Continue reading...

In the wake of the financial crisis and with the rapid rise of new technologies, award-winning economist and journalist, Paul Mason, believes we're on the cusp of a seismic economic shift, of a kind yet to be seen in human history. So has capitalism had its day? Watch him argue his case with Douglas Murray, Zoe Williams, Julia Powles and Pat Kane.

Almost nine out of 10 Russians approve of their president, according to survey that also highlights support for Ukraine strategyVladimir Putin’s approval rating is at record levels, with nine out of 10 Russians saying they have a positive view of their president. Putin had an approval of 87% in July, and an all-time high of 89% in June, according to Levada Centre polling.

Falls in sales in June were reported by petrol stations, food stores and shops selling household goodsFalling prices failed to tempt consumers to part with their money last month as shops and online traders reported a surprise drop in business.The Office for National Statistics said the volume of retail sales in June fell 0.2% compared with May, confounding City expectations of a 0.4% post-election boost to spending. Continue reading...

Large majority of MPs including Yanis Varoufakis, the renegade former finance minister, approves further measures required to qualify for €86bn in loansGreece’s prime minister easily won a crucial vote on a third bailout programme for the debt-stricken nation early on Thursday, hours after the European Central Bank infused cash-starved Greek banks with further emergency liquidity.A total of 230 MPs backed the economic reforms programme demanded by Greece’s creditors, while 63 voted against the plan at the late-night vote.Related: Business live: Anti-austerity protest in Athens ahead of bailout voteRelated: Chances of Greek bailout rest on MPs' vote Continue reading...

MPs in Athens have voted to accept a second package of economic measures tonight, despite another Syriza rebellion

The 6,000 claimants say they were not given necessary information about HBOS finances and other details before the ill-fated acquisitionLloyds shareholders involved in a £350m legal battle over the company’s takeover of Halifax Bank of Scotland (HBOS) have gone to the high court in an attempt to obtain secret documents relating to the deal.The 6,000 claimants, who all held Lloyds TSB stock at the time of the acquisition, claim they were kept in the dark when they were asked to approve the takeover.Related: Bank of England and FCA's report on failure of HBOS suffers further delaysRelated: Lloyds v RBS - two banks with different problems Continue reading...

Athens and Berlin are so outraged with each other that they need to calm down before any kind of resolution can become possible. Is counselling the answer?Political Berlin feels emotional right now. A high-level German politician put it this way to me recently: “It’s like a whole hysteria going on here. The Berlin political world is emotional all the time. It has to stop, but I don’t know how. The anger is on the left, it’s on the right.” The historian Jacob Soll touched on this outpouring of emotion as it relates to Greece in a column in the New York Times last week, and his conclusion is that Germans must regain their cool if they want to lead Europe.He is right, but he is skipping a step. Germans cannot regain their cool until they reduce the outrage they feel towards Greece, which they perceive as the guilty partner in their eurozone marriage. To do this, both nations must engage an impartial, outside mediator to help them mitigate the outrage they feel towards each other. In a structured, therapy-like setting, relevant policymakers from both sides would then finally be able to sit together and create a shared vision to wrest Greece from its economic depression.Related: Why is Germany so tough on Greece? Look back 25 years | Dirk LaabsAn impartial mediating team could help treat the emotion and lower the outrage Continue reading...

Bank’s policymakers fear infighting over bailout talks may drag down growth in eurozone, but admit prospect of hike increasing as UK economy strengthensBank of England policymakers are concerned that backsliding in talks to resolve the Greek debt crisis could delay Britain’s first interest rate rise in eight years, but admitted that the prospect of a hike is increasing as the UK economy strengthens.With Brussels and Athens yet to begin formal talks on a third bailout deal, the monetary policy committee (MPC) said the eurozone could falter in the event of renewed infighting between Greece and its creditors. Continue reading...

‘Despite the doom and gloom and fulminations ... business confidence has risen in recent months’An interest rate cut is possible, but evidence of further economic weakness will not automatically trigger one, the governor of the Reserve Bank, Glenn Stevens, warns.A period of somewhat disappointing, but hardly disastrous, economic growth and well-contained inflation has allowed the interest rate to be cut to very low levels, Stevens said at the annual Anika Foundation lunch in Sydney on Wednesday.Related: RBA's warning to the government: we can't lift the economy aloneRelated: Reserve Bank of Australia leaves interest rates unchanged at 2% Continue reading...

Report predicts house price rises of 5% a year and shortage of affordable homes, as cost of deposit locks people out of property marketHouse price rises of 5% a year and a shortage of affordable homes are set to swell the ranks of “generation rent” over the next decade, so that by 2025 more than half of those under 40 will be living in properties owned by private landlords.A report from economists at accountancy firm PwC suggests the number of new homebuyers is set to fall over the next 10 years, as the high cost of raising a deposit locks large segments of society out of the housing market.Related: What George Osborne did for Generation RentRelated: ‘Generation rent’? We’ve been here before | Danny Dorling Continue reading...

Draft report on collapse of bank later rescued by Lloyds TSB during 2008 credit crunch must be reviewed by those criticised in process called ‘re-maxwellisation’The long-awaited report into what went wrong at HBOS before it was rescued by Lloyds TSB during the 2008 banking crisis is facing further delays, it has been revealed as investigators admitted they need the permission of individuals criticised in the report before it can be published.Andrew Bailey, deputy governor of the Bank of England, revealed on Tuesday that the draft report on events that took place at least seven years ago ran to 500 pages. The investigation has received 1,425 representations from more than 35 individuals and their lawyers over the report, which is being compiled by the Bank of England and the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA).Related: HBOS report delayed to end of yearRelated: HBOS: the bank that couldn't say no Continue reading...

Borrowing down by almost £1bn on year before as George Osborne steers course to hit deficit target of £69.5bn for 2015-16Lower spending by local authorities provided George Osborne with a boost last month by cutting the amount the government needed to borrow to balance taxes and spending by almost £1bn to its lowest June total in seven years. Official figures showed public sector net borrowing – the Treasury’s preferred measure of the deficit – stood at £9.4bn in June, down £800m on the same month in 2014.Despite a smaller cut in borrowing last month than the City had been predicting, analysts said Osborne was on course to hit his deficit target of £69.5bn for the entire 2015-16 financial year. The independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) said the June total was £700m above market expectations, with strong tax receipts offset by rising spending by Whitehall. Local government spending was £1bn lower than a year earlier. Continue reading...

Creditors demand a complete change to civil code and to comply with EU banking reform law, with voting seen as a test of Syriza’s strengthGreek MPs will vote on Wednesday on two laws that could make or break the country’s prospects of an international bailout. Greece is poised to begin talks with its international creditors on a proposed €86bn (£60bn) bailout, but first the Greek parliament has to vote through two measures – a banking reform law and an overhaul of Greece’s civil code.Introducing these laws was a demand of Greece’s creditors and remains the final hurdle Athens must clear before embarking on a demanding schedule of bailout talks. Continue reading...

As things quieten down in Greece we turn our attention back to the UK where official figures show an improvement in government borrowing in June

Figure of £9.4bn is the lowest June total for years – as income and corporation tax receipts rose – but is higher than economists’ forecasts of £8.5bnBritish government borrowing last month fell by less than expected but was the lowest June figure for seven years, the latest sign that the pick-up in the economy is helping the public finances.Britain’s headline public borrowing fell to £9.4bn in June from £10.2bn a year earlier, the Office for National Statistics said on Tuesday. However, economists had forecast a figure of £8.5bn.Related: Business live blog: UK government borrowing falls Continue reading...