Latest data shows pay is rising at fastest rate since 2009, with average salaries up by just under 3%Britain’s workers are finally receiving a long-awaited pay rise, with average wages increasing at the fastest pace for more than six years, even before the minimum wage hike planned by the chancellor.Official figures showed that average pay across the economy increased by 2.9%, when comparing May to July with the same period a year earlier. Continue reading...

Paris-based Organisation for Economic Cooperation & Development says China slowdown and uneven data for other large markets will cause uncertaintyThe world economy appears to be suffering a slowdown in growth that will stretch through the rest of the year and 2016, according to a report by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation & Development.Heightening concerns that a period of “secular stagnation” is about to dampen the prospects for global growth, the Paris-based thinktank said China’s economy was flagging and recent stock market turmoil had exposed the fragility of many emerging market economies. Continue reading...

As the Fed embarks on its two-day policy meeting, we analyse why policymakers might vote for the first rate hike in almost decade, why they might not, and what it all means for the global economyInterest rates in the US have been close to zero since the depths of the financial crisis but global investors are braced for change, as the country’s central bank prepares to raise borrowing costs. The first in an expected string of small increases could come this week, with the Federal Reserve rate-setting committee starting a two-day meeting on Wednesday where it will consider a rise. The ramifications of the decision, announced on Thursday, will extend beyond the world’s largest economy.Related: Markets brace for US Federal Reserve interest rate decision - live updatesRelated: Federal Reserve slashes interest rates to nearly zeroSpeech by Vice Chairman Fischer on U.S. inflation developments: http://t.co/2IKVc1zrOBNo time for an interest rate hike. Read my column: http://t.co/XmY9PS2OO2 Continue reading...

Tumbling cost of crude oil, supermarket price war and cheaper clothing offers timely boost to consumer spendingSharp falls in petrol and diesel pulled UK inflation back down to zero last month as tumbling crude oil prices trickled down to households.Official figures showed inflation on the consumer prices index edged back down to 0.0% in August from 0.1% in July, continuing the trend since the start of this year of virtually no year-on-year rise in living costs. Inflation has been below the Bank of England’s 2% target for the past 20 months.

With the Marx-reading campaigner as shadow chancellor, renationalisation is back on the agenda along with wealth tax and a higher living wageChris Leslie, Labour’s short-lived post-election shadow chancellor, said the party should pitch its appeal to “the Which? magazine strata of society” made up of cost-conscious middle-class consumers and buy-to-let landlords. His successor, the veteran leftwing campaigner John McDonnell, is more likely to be found reading Karl Marx.Marx’s Capital, with its prognosis – as yet unrealised almost 150 years on – that capitalism’s inherent contradictions and periodic crises would eventually bring about its collapse, is the first book O’Donnell recommends reading to understand the thinking behind Labour’s new economic policy.Related: John McDonnell: unreconstructed on the left, but with allies on the right Continue reading...

Rolling coverage of economics and the markets, including the latest UK inflation report and another bad day for Chinese stocks

The new PM needs a grown-up approach to industrial policy, tax, housing and aged care in order to tackle the problems facing the Australian economyMalcolm Turnbull has but a year to inject confidence and strength into the economy or else he will be swept from office and condemned to history as a wrecker of a first term Liberal government.Related: Malcolm Turnbull takes first question time as prime minister – politics liveRelated: The rich are getting richer – and their wealth is safe as housesRelated: Economic management is now Tony Abbott's weakest claim to re-election | Stephen Koukoulas Continue reading...

Some analysts even see CPI turning negative again after a sharp fall in crude oil prices and a supermarket price war cut the cost of petrolSharp falls in petrol prices are expected to have pulled UK inflation back down to zero in August, economists predict ahead of the latest official figures today.Financial markets will be looking to inflation data at 9.30am for clues as to when the Bank of England will start raising interest rates after more than six years at their record low of 0.5%. The US Federal Reserve is expected, by a slim majority of economists, to hike its main interest rate this week, but experts believe the UK’s central bank will wait until at least the end of the year to follow suit. Continue reading...

Thinktank predicts one-in-four workers will benefit from new wage floor, with total wage bill rising by £1.5bn next yearUK employers will see their total wage bill rise by only 0.6% under the new “national living wage” – but the impact will be much bigger for a handful of industries, including retail and hospitality, according to a report.The Resolution Foundation thinktank also found that small businesses with fewer than 10 employees face the biggest increase in their wage bill under the new minimum pay rates announced in George Osborne’s summer budget. Continue reading...

Stock market ends day slightly down after election of Labour’s new leader and the appointment of his senior teamBusiness leaders were treading carefully in their approach to the new Labour leadership on Monday, saying only that they want to meet the new shadow cabinet to get more details on the policies Jeremy Corbyn outlined during his leadership campaign. These included taking public control of the energy industry, hiking taxes and his “people’s QE” - electronic money-printing to spend on infrastructure.City traders appeared largely unworried about the new Corbyn-Tom Watson-John McDonnell Labour team. The FTSE 100 index was little changed, ending 33 points lower at 6084. Shares in the UK’s big banks, threatened with nationalisation by new shadow chancellor McDonnell, were slightly lower, but there was no sign of a big sell-off. Energy company shares were also little moved in stark contrast to the panic that set in two years ago when Ed Miliband threatened the sector with price capping. Continue reading...

¿Por qué todos hablan del Pablo Iglesias británico?

The Labour leader and my own party Podemos have one thing in common: a rejection of the neoliberalism that has impoverished our people

In an extract from his new book, Andy Beckett gets an extraordinary insight into the 1981 Toxteth riots – from the Liverpool-based economist advising Margaret Thatcher’s government, and a rioter enraged by their controversial policiesFor much of the postwar period, Britain imported more than it exported. The resulting trade deficits were widely seen as a sign of approaching economic doom; that a once-great trading and manufacturing nation could no longer make its way in the world.

Resolution Foundation study reveals overlooked link between firms limiting wage rises to plug pension liabilities of retired staffWorkers expecting Britain’s economic recovery to fill out their pay packets are in for a nasty surprise.While the UK’s collective national income is expected to grow by more than 2% a year until at least 2020, the share distributed in wages is going to be less than many hope. As much as one percentage point could continue to be knocked off annual pay rises because firms need to plug holes in the pension pots of retired staff, according to a report.Related: John Lewis group ditches final salary pension for staff contribution schemeRelated: Baby boomers v the rest: is age the great new divide? Continue reading...

Business confidence stalls as new evidence shows UK growth becoming more reliant on consumer spendingNew doubts have emerged over the UK’s economic outlook after new evidence that growth is reliant on household spending while manufacturers struggle with a strong pound and the fallout from a downturn in China.UK economic growth is expected to hold up during the second half of this year but a sharp drop in business confidence in recent weeks suggests the momentum is under threat, according to a round-up of indicators from accountants BDO.Related: UK manufacturing hit by turmoil in ChinaRelated: Interest rates must rise 'relatively soon', says Bank of England's Martin Weale Continue reading...

Continuing wage growth and inflation mean rate hike likely follow despite recent economic slowdown, according to Bank’s monetary policy committee memberA Bank of England policymaker has said interest rates need to rise “relatively soon”, adding to signs that support is gradually building for the first increase in British borrowing costs since before the financial crisis.Martin Weale, one of the Bank’s rate-setters, also said a rise would give the central bank scope to make cuts if the British economy runs into trouble in the future.Related: Bank of England official raises prospects for early interest rate hike Continue reading...

Reforms of underperforming state-owned enterprises include introducing ‘mixed ownership’ by bringing in private investmentChina has unveiled details of how it will restructure its state-owned enterprises, including partial privatisations, as data pointed to a cooling in the world’s second largest economy.

The chancellor’s higher minimum wage will benefit the low-paid. But the Tories’ trade union bill simultaneously strips them of their bargaining power at workThe backlash has begun. CBI director general John Cridland last week joined the bosses of Next, Whitbread and Wetherspoons in expressing concern about the impact of George Osborne’s “national living wage”, which Cridland described as “a gamble”.It is a gamble. Churlish Corbynites might complain that the £9 or so which over-25s will have to be paid by 2020 is still well below any realistic estimate of the income required to cover basic needs – rent, food, bills and so on.Without the right to strike, few of the past century’s seminal advances in pay and conditions would have been won Continue reading...

Once seen as the ‘decoupled’ vanguards of global financial change, emerging economies suddenly seem as vulnerable as ever to developments in the USBrazil, which saw its credit rating downgraded to junk last week, is only the latest Brics economy to crumble in the face of a strong dollar, a global trade slowdown and the prospect of higher US interest rates.Russia is already in recession; many economists believe China is heading towards a “hard landing”; and South Africa, which managed to append itself to the emerging-markets club in 2010, is on the brink of recession. Continue reading...

Glasenberg faces tricky talks with bankers, plus Britain’s long-awaited pay rise, and Andy Haldane prepares to tweetAs any child knows, an apology doesn’t count if you cross your fingers behind your back while making it. Last week we saw the City version of this approach, when commodities giant Glencore finally gave in to shareholders and admitted it had got it wrong about its balance sheet. Well, sort of.The company announced a programme to cut its debts by about $10bn, including raising $2.5bn of extra funds – essentially giving in to demands from investors. Still, chief executive Ivan Glasenberg’s statement on this enforced U-turn began with the word “notwithstanding”, before going to explain why he was right and shareholders were wrong. Continue reading...

Jeremy Corbyn must deliver a credible economic alternative grounded in a new, modernised KeynesianismJeremy Corbyn’s extraordinary surge to the Labour leadership is part of the same revolt against austerity and the political establishment represented by the SNP in Scotland, Syriza in Greece and Podemos in Spain.By supporting austerity in moderation, Europe’s socialist parliamentary parties, Labour included, have haemorrhaged support to populist parties – in Labour’s case to Ukip; the French Socialists to the Front National. Continue reading...

Retailers are angry, exporters are worried and productivity is still poor – then comes worse news from overseasAs he gazes across the Commons to a new shadow cabinet, George Osborne will doubtless be prouder than ever of the long-term economic plan that helped his party stampede to victory in May. For a chancellor who never tires of saying that his stewardship of the UK economy has made it among the best performing of the developed world, now more than ever he will want to paint himself as a safe pair of hands. But Osborne can’t expect an easy ride: he has a bumper in-tray and economic threats from home and abroad. Here are his six big challenges: Continue reading...

A Jeremy Corbyn win could take Richard Murphy from the rural town of Downham Market to No 11 Downing StreetRichard Murphy is a chartered accountant and tax expert from a rural market town in Norfolk. He is also the brains behind Corbynomics, the radical policy platform that has electrified Labour’s leadership campaign – and he is happy for you to know it.

Well done to George Monbiot for his blistering attack on the excesses of the financial world (Opinion, 9 September). But he sets out the problems without offering solutions. Here is one suggestion. The dysfunction of speculative investment could be tackled by slowing down the frenzied activity of stock markets. Suppose it became illegal to part with shares within a year of purchase. This would encourage the view of shares as long-term investments in enterprises with the expectation of regular, but not exorbitant, dividends. Shareholders might then take more interest in the management of the enterprise, including the welfare of its workforce.China is partly doing this, as reported on 11 July by Jennifer Duggan, with shareholders with large stakes in listed firms currently banned from selling for six months. Monbiot’s article should be widely discussed by the many people who have suddenly realised that politics deserves their attention. Perhaps they will begin to clamour for social justice for all and an end to the scandalous practices that he cites. Certainly it should underpin the thinking and decisions of the next Labour shadow cabinet.

United Nations general assembly agrees set of principles on debt restructuring, although US, UK and Germany vote againstThe United Nations general assembly has approved a set of principles to resolve disputes between bankrupt countries and their creditors that the former Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis said would have “avoided the pitfalls of the Greek crisis”.The vote, with 136 supporting the scheme to six against, and 41 abstentions, comes after years of lobbying by Argentina and latterly Greece for a debt restructuring process to shield them from draconian cutbacks and reforms that threaten their political and economic stability. Continue reading...

US investment bank expects oversupply to continue into next yearThe price of oil could more than halve again, to just $20 (£13) a barrel, experts at Goldman Sachs are predicting, a shift which would spell big savings for motorists but cast doubt on the viability of North Sea oilfields.

Rate-setting member Kristin Forbes outlines how failure of strong pound to hold down inflation could prompt early riseA senior Bank of England official has raised the prospect of interest rates rising sooner than expected if economists are proved wrong about the power of a strong pound to hold down inflation.

Construction of public housing fell by 15.6%, while the 0.8% growth in private building work was slowest since March 2013, offical data showsBritish construction output dipped unexpectedly in July, reversing a bounce in June, after the biggest annual fall in housebuilding in more than two years.A major driver of the decline was a year-on-year fall in the amount of new housing being built, which dropped by 2.5%, the first decline since March 2013. Continue reading...

Prime minister targets prisons and children in care as he seeks to open up contracts to small businessesDavid Cameron will herald new moves to open up public services to private providers when he hails the role of “insurgent companies” and speaks of the benefit of “breaking state monopolies”.In a speech outlining the government’s approach to the autumn spending review, in which George Osborne will outline £20bn of cuts, the prime minister will cite children in care services and prisons as “standout areas” for reform.Opening up contracts to small businesses spreads entrepreneurship and drives innovation Continue reading...

Downgrade reflects country’s struggle to regain investor confidence as political turmoil drives growing government deficitBrazil’s financial markets have fallen after Standard & Poor’s cut the country’s sovereign rating to junk.The drop from investment grade, which came sooner than many in the market had expected, reflected President Dilma Rousseff’s struggle to regain investor confidence as political turmoil drives a growing government deficit in Latin America’s largest economy. Continue reading...

Clamour for tax cuts and greater public spending likely to rise after low euro fuels rapid growthIreland is on track to maintain its stellar growth record after the low euro helped boost exports in the second quarter of the year.The government predicted GDP would expand by 6% this year, matching last year’s post-crash record and maintaining Ireland as the fastest-growing economy in the eurozone.

Finance minister expects 6% growth this year, as Irish economy maintains position as fastest-growing in the eurozoneIreland’s government expects the economy to grow by about 6% this year, far more than originally forecast after data showed that it grew by 1.9% quarter-on-quarter from April to June.After increasing by more than 5% in 2014, Ireland’s fast-recovering economy was already set to be the best performing in the EU for the second successive year when the government forecast in April it would grow by 4% this year. Continue reading...

Developments in China were ‘the main focus of the committee’s decision’ to leave interest rates unchanged, the Bank’s minutes showBank of England policymakers have offered a reassuring verdict on the impact of China’s market meltdown, insisting that while it would “add to the global headwinds” facing the UK, their plans to raise interest rates remained on track.One member of the Bank’s nine-member monetary policy committee, former CBI economist Ian McCafferty, voted for an immediate increase in borrowing costs from their record low of 0.5% at the meeting that concluded on Wednesday – the same voting pattern as in August.Related: Bank of England votes 8-1 to leave UK interest rates unchanged - live updates Continue reading...

Despite another slew of poor data sending stock markets down, Beijing will meet its 7% growth target and promises it will never start a currency warChina’s economy faces challenges and downward pressures but there is no risk of a hard landing as the government is fully capable of supporting growth, premier Li Keqiang said on Thursday.

Britain does not have a strike problem – so why the need for new legislation? The government should be working constructively with unions to raise productivityThe Conservative government plans legislation later this year that will heavily circumscribe workers’ already limited freedom to take industrial action.Neither the coalition, nor the previous Labour government, saw any need to revisit strike legislation. So, what has changed?Related: Government's trade union proposals not fit for purpose, watchdog saysThe Conservative proposals are ideological rather than practical and have a weak evidential and legal basisRelated: The Guardian view on trade union reform: partisan politics and rotten policy | Editorial Continue reading...

The jobless figure fell as expected last month from 6.3% in July and the total number of people in work rose by 7,400 driven by part-time jobsAustralia’s unemployment rate fell to 6.2% in August despite disappointing economic growth and turmoil on the world’s stock markets.Related: Economic management is now Tony Abbott's weakest claim to re-election | Stephen Koukoulas Continue reading...

Japan’s Nikkei surges by 7.7%, its biggest gain since 2008 after China pledges new spending measure to support growth

Surge of 7.7% in Nikkei 225 index comes after prime minister’s pledge of corporate tax cuts, though long-term questions over ‘Abenomics’ remainJapan’s stock market soared on Wednesday after the prime minister, Shinzō Abe, promised to cut corporate taxes and maintain the ultra-low borrowing costs that have supported the country’s economic recovery over the last two years.The Nikkei 225 index rose by 7.7%, its biggest one-day rise since the 2008 global financial crisis, as Abe, fresh from his recent re-election as LDP leader, said he planned to cut corporation tax by three percentage points and sounded optimistic on reaching a trans-Pacific trade deal. Continue reading...

Willem Buiter, chief economist at Citi and former Bank of England policymaker, warns China’s woes are set to spreadA “hard landing” for China is likely to plunge the world economy into recession in the next two years, Willem Buiter, chief global economist at Citigroup and a former Bank of England policymaker, has said.As the Federal Reserve in Washington prepares to decide whether to defy warnings of economic fragility and push up interest rates next week, a research note by Citi’s experts warns of a 55% probability of global recession. Continue reading...

Fragile world economy takes toll on manufacturing as trade deficit widens to £3.4bn in July from £2.6bn in JuneFears are growing about the strength of Britain’s economic recovery, after sharp falls in exports and manufacturing output offered the first evidence the global slowdown may be taking its toll.Britain’s overall trade deficit in goods and services widened to £3.4bn in July, from £2.6bn in June, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).Related: UK manufacturing hit by turmoil in China Continue reading...